I will create polls on Manifold and the ACX discord.

To address survivorship bias, if the musical never happens, I will ask the creators why not. If they say that they cancelled it because it was going to be too hard to make it any good, I will resolve NO. If it was shelved for any other reason, I will resolve N/A.

THE FINE PRINT:

• When summing results of multiple polls I will weigh the two equally, not in proportion to # of respondents.

• I will ask people to rate it from 1-5 stars and resolve YES if there are more 4s and 5s than 1s and 2s.

• I will sell any shares I own before market close to ensure the polling process is unbiased.