I will create polls on Manifold and the ACX discord.
To address survivorship bias, if the musical never happens, I will ask the creators why not. If they say that they cancelled it because it was going to be too hard to make it any good, I will resolve NO. If it was shelved for any other reason, I will resolve N/A.
THE FINE PRINT:
When summing results of multiple polls I will weigh the two equally, not in proportion to # of respondents.
I will ask people to rate it from 1-5 stars and resolve YES if there are more 4s and 5s than 1s and 2s.
I will sell any shares I own before market close to ensure the polling process is unbiased.
1,000
3.00I'd fill your entire limit order, but I feel that asking the most diehard fans of Scott Alexander if the musical based on his book is "good" might be a tiny bit biased in favor of "yes".
Imho asking normal theatre audiences and SSC-sourced audiences about their opinion on the musical would have a significant difference - at least 15% approval difference.
@SemioticRivalry And it's so long! I feel like maybe a one-act about the alternate history of the universe could work? I thought the political interludes were fun