Will Moodys downgrade the US government's credit rating by the end of Q1 2024?

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Fitch one of the three big credit rating agencies just downgraded US government debt to AA+ from AAA: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/view-fitch-downgrades-us-foreign-currency-ratings-aa-aaa-2023-08-01/

This follows S&P who downgraded the US government's credit rating in 2011

The only remaining big 3 ratings agency which has the US government on the highest credit rating is Moodys.

Instant View: Fitch downgrades U.S. foreign currency ratings to 'AA+' from 'AAA'

Ratings agency Fitch on Tuesday downgraded the United States' long-term foreign currency ratings to AA+ from AAA, reflecting expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years as well as a high and growing general government debt burden.

Market context

US Politics

Economics

Gov shutdown

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@IsarBhattacharjee What time zone will be used to determine the end of Q1 2024?

@Unown I'm in the UK but US would probably be most sensible

If anyone’s curious, I’m betting this down because it seems way too high, not because of new news. It does seem like the price was high partly because of the government shutdown though, and that didn’t happen.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/moodys-changes-outlook-united-states-ratings-negative-2023-11-10/

What's the base rate of degrading after "negative" outlook update?

Moodys have said they will review the US credit rating if there is a shutdown

The only remaining big 3 ratings agency which has the US government on the highest credit rating is Fitch.

I assume that meant to say "Moody's" instead of "Fitch."

@CollectedOverSpread good spot just corrected

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