Will Moodys downgrade the US government's credit rating by the end of Q1 2024?
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resolved Apr 1
Resolved
NO
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@IsarBhattacharjee What time zone will be used to determine the end of Q1 2024?

@Unown I'm in the UK but US would probably be most sensible

bought Ṁ200 of NO

If anyone’s curious, I’m betting this down because it seems way too high, not because of new news. It does seem like the price was high partly because of the government shutdown though, and that didn’t happen.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/moodys-changes-outlook-united-states-ratings-negative-2023-11-10/

What's the base rate of degrading after "negative" outlook update?

bought Ṁ1 of YES

Moodys have said they will review the US credit rating if there is a shutdown

The only remaining big 3 ratings agency which has the US government on the highest credit rating is Fitch.

I assume that meant to say "Moody's" instead of "Fitch."

bought Ṁ30 of YES

@CollectedOverSpread good spot just corrected