Background
Python's creator Guido van Rossum and the Python Steering Council have explicitly stated there are no plans to release Python 4. After the challenging transition from Python 2 to Python 3, which took many years and caused significant compatibility issues, the development team has decided to continue improving Python through the 3.x versioning scheme rather than creating a new major version.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES if Python 4.0 (or any 4.x version) is officially released by the Python Software Foundation before January 1, 2030. The market will resolve NO if:
Python 4 is not released by January 1, 2030
Python development continues under the 3.x versioning scheme through 2030
Considerations
Major version changes in programming languages are typically driven by breaking changes that require backward incompatibility
The Python development team is currently focused on improving Python 3 through incremental updates, including significant features like the nogil project
Any future breaking changes are likely to be implemented within the Python 3.x versioning scheme rather than warranting a new major version
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I think people are really underestimating the tsunami of software that's coming. This will likely mean more rapid iteration on core tools
@MalachiteEagle Counterpoint: The excellent ability of AI to write Python3 increases the relative cost of upgrading to a non-backwards compatible version.
@BoltonBailey I think that is a property of current systems. Post-AGI systems can learn rapidly, and adapt many orders magnitude faster than humans can.
@MalachiteEagle Interesting! Here is a market tracking the correlation of AGI coming before 2028 with this market. If you really think AGI would improve the chances of getting a Python 4 I encourage you to bet on the first and last options.
https://www.geeksforgeeks.org/latest-update-on-python-4/
"We’re not thrilled about the idea of Python 4 and nobody in the core dev team is—so probably there never will be a version 4.0 and we’ll just keep numbering until 3.99," van Rossum stated. He emphasized that the transition from Python 2 to Python 3 was challenging and that the team learned valuable lessons from this experience. The team’s focus is on incremental improvements within the Python 3.x series rather than introducing a major version overhaul.