AGI Before 2028? // Python 4 before 2030?

Question

This question resolves according to the following two markets:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346?play=true)(https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacLiu/will-python-4-be-released-before-20?play=true)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, No AGI // No Python 4, followed by AGI // Python 4 and AGI // No Python 4 are most likely. See the market for live updates (8 traders, as of Jun 1, 2026).