Will there be significant social unrest, protests, riots, etc. over the results of the 2024 presidential election?
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110
Ṁ12k
Feb 1
71%
chance

Significant enough to make national news and be a talking point. The January 6th riot in 2020 would have counted, as would the "not my president" protests in 2016.

A single news article on the protest doesn't count; it needs to be a part of The Discourse™. A big thing that even someone who isn't very involved in politics would probably hear about on social media.

#🇺🇸 US Politics
#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election
#️ Politics
#Culture War
#Bad Rules
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Think about reframing. "Will there be riots" is 1969. "Will there be a peaceful transfer of power" may be more what you're going for.

Will there be riots in Miami June 13, 2023 due to Trump’s court appearance?
50% chance. This market resolves YES if during June 13, 2023 (until 23:59:59 local time) protests, riots, social unrest occur in Miami, FL that carry the (political) message of favoring the indicted, attacking the judicial system or similar and that meet one or more of the following criteria, report…

The rules are way too vague. There is no such thing as "the national news". Delete the market, resolve at market price, and remake with proper rules using things that are measurable. Ex. a protest involving > 10,000 people. A riot where 1 or more police cars are burned.

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