Will the Steve Kirsch/Rootclaim bet about COVID-19 vaccine deaths go through?
Basic
8
Ṁ587
Jan 1
86%
chance

Steve seemed to be trying to get out of the bet, but now they appear to have worked out a mutually agreeable bet. This market resolves YES if they end up having the debate as planned, and NO if they do not.

View the exact terms of the bet here, and the background here and here.

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Initially, each Judge must score 0 on the following scoring system

Decision The Judges will attempt to evaluate whether, in the US, the lives
saved by the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are more or less than the
deaths they caused, as of January 1st, 2023.
Each judge will issue one of three decisions:
1. Score +1: The evidence better supports the hypothesis that
the vaccines resulted in more people being alive.
2. Score -1: The evidence better supports the hypothesis that
the vaccines resulted in less people being alive.
3. Score 0: The evidence supports both hypotheses at about the
same level.
For the pre-debate vote, this score can also indicate that a
judge has not studied the issue enough to reach a +1 or -1
vote.

It's going to be pretty hard to find people that score 0 AND that you'd trust with a 1 million dollar decision.

The rootclaim approach of claiming to objectively quantify likelihoods on binary questions and then finding it reasonable for judges to say they're still at 50/50 when all the evidence is in is odd. It would be way better if there were a requirement to vote up or down; even if the judges end up close to 50/50, they're still on one side or the other if they consider any evidence at all.

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