Will the Manifold homepage still say "not crypto" at the end of 2024?
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Navigate to https://manifold.markets/ in an incognito window and you'll see it.

Only those literal two words in that order qualify. Anywhere on the homepage counts, even if they get moved.

A tangentially relevant blog post: https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/against-disclaihtml

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@IsaacKing The Homepage does not say it

@ErrorProne An intepretation of this market is whether the homepage will say those specific words at the end of 2024, and any time in the middle doesn't matter. So it won't resolve yet.

bought Ṁ100 NO

it is removed

I'm more interested in whether the new user landing homepage communicates to viewers that Manifold is not crypto, than whether those specific two words appear on it.

@Eliza Your wish is my command:

counterpoint - the blog is about blogs, but splash page marketing is a succinct science. the goal for manifold is probably to convey the most relevant information and answer common questions in as few words possible. and we do know manifold gets confused for crypto often.

but either way i think the phrase 'not crypto' should be temporary. as they improve their marketing and people learn to grok manifold better, they can use their taglines to highlight more relevant points