Navigate to https://manifold.markets/ in an incognito window and you'll see it.
Only those literal two words in that order qualify. Anywhere on the homepage counts, even if they get moved.
A tangentially relevant blog post: https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/against-disclaihtml
1,000
3.00@ErrorProne An intepretation of this market is whether the homepage will say those specific words at the end of 2024, and any time in the middle doesn't matter. So it won't resolve yet.
counterpoint - the blog is about blogs, but splash page marketing is a succinct science. the goal for manifold is probably to convey the most relevant information and answer common questions in as few words possible. and we do know manifold gets confused for crypto often.
but either way i think the phrase 'not crypto' should be temporary. as they improve their marketing and people learn to grok manifold better, they can use their taglines to highlight more relevant points