Will Sam Altman return to being the CEO of OpenAI before the end of 2024?
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resolved Nov 30
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YES

For any length of time, even if they're removed again shortly afterwards.

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JeffreyAnnaraj avatar
Jeffrey Annarajpredicted YES

@IsaacKing resolve please

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚predicted YES

JeffreyAnnaraj avatar
Jeffrey Annarajpredicted YES

@Joshua interesting...

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King

@JeffreyAnnaraj ...Why? If something new has happened, I can't learn about it without a source.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King

@JeffreyAnnaraj Yes, 5 days after you originally claimed without justification that this market should resolve, the relevant event has now occurred.

JeffreyAnnaraj avatar
Jeffrey Annarajpredicted YES

looks like it should be resolved

MP avatar
MP

I think now I'll have to figure out a way to remove Sam personally so that @JamesGrugett doesn't win our leave so dramatically.

(Just kidding, congrats)

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚predicted YES

@MP We should have known the tech CEO would be good at predicting things related to tech CEOs!

ersatz avatar
ersatz

This market is wild, from >80% to <5% back to >80%...

EliTyre avatar
Eli Tyrepredicted NO

@ersatz The situation is pretty wild!

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherebought Ṁ100 of NO

timing of this post, lol

ersatz avatar
ersatzpredicted NO

Sam is joining Microsoft:

ersatz avatar
ersatzpredicted NO
ersatz avatar
ersatzbought Ṁ10 of NO
ersatz avatar
ersatzpredicted NO

Executive Editor at The Information, so credible.

ersatz avatar
ersatz

A legal argument against Sam Altman's return that someone made:

If they accept Sam back with an admission he was fired without cause they breached fiduciary duty by firing him in the first place.

If they accept him back without they get sued by the IRS for handing nonprofit to profit-man and bailing.

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚bought Ṁ100 of YES

I am not at all a lawyer but I'm pretty sure Microsoft and others would find a way to sue them if they don't bring him back. And if you're getting sued no matter what, I'd rather have Microsoft on my side personally.

RyanGreenblatt avatar
Ryan Greenblattsold Ṁ24 of NO

@ersatz The OpenAI board has no fiduciary duty (Edit: no duty to make money or pay back investors). They do have a duty to the mission.

AndrewHebb avatar
Andrew Hebbpredicted YES

@RyanGreenblatt I think they have both.

RyanGreenblatt avatar
Ryan Greenblatt

@AndrewHebb See the pink box labeled "Important" here: https://openai.com/our-structure

RyanGreenblatt avatar
Ryan Greenblatt

@AndrewHebb Oh, I see:

> Second, because the board is still the board of a Nonprofit, each director must perform their fiduciary duties in furtherance of its mission—safe AGI that is broadly beneficial. While the for-profit subsidiary is permitted to make and distribute profit, it is subject to this mission. The Nonprofit’s principal beneficiary is humanity, not OpenAI investors.

That's not usually what people mean by fiduciary, I thought fiduciary refered to "duty to investors" in this conversation, but I guess it can also mean duty to mission.

ersatz avatar
ersatz

@RyanGreenblatt "The OpenAI board has no fiduciary duty" Don't they own OpenAI, the for-profit company? They're just the company's majority shareholder, aren't they? If that's the case, maybe they have a legal duty not to do something that destroys company value, or something like that?

RyanGreenblatt avatar
Ryan Greenblatt

@ersatz The intention of the corporate structure is that they have absolutely no obligation to shareholders (as is articulated in the blog post I linked above). This hasn't been tested in court, though I expect that absolutely no obligation to shareholders would win out. (However, the non-profit can still be sued for not pursuing their mission.)

(I am not a lawyer and this is not legal advice.)

AndrewHebb avatar
Andrew Hebbbought Ṁ160 of NO

@RyanGreenblatt No, you're right. I wasn't aware of that pink section.