Will Q1 of 2024 be the last quarter in which the news is not entirely full of AI drama until 2030?
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AKA "Will this other Yudkowsky tweet hold up".
https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1727517658390966605
savor the news timeline in Q1 2024, for those will be the last months of your existence when the news is not entirely full of AI drama
Resolves on vibes, I won't bet.
(Eliezer clarified in a reply that their prediction is unlikely to be true, but we can still bet on it!)
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@IsaacKing, can you remove the capital letter at the start of the sentence and the period at the end? Their absence in the original tweet is an important cue to the fact that I'm joking.
@EliezerYudkowsky Looking at the capitals and periods in Eliezer tweets is the last resource I have left to distinguish reality from fiction at this point.
I mean, there's US elections in Q4, no way that doesn't dominate headlines regardless of what's going on in AI space
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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