Will manifold.love be seen as a mistake by the Manifold community at the end of 2024?
Will manifold.love be seen as a mistake by the Manifold community at the end of 2024?
74
1kṀ7361resolved Jan 17
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
A copy of this market with a poll 1 year later.
At the end of the year I will make a community poll asking the following question:
"Was manifold.love a mistake?"
This market will resolve after the poll has been up for a week based on poll results. If the poll is somehow compromised due to botting or some other untrustworthy methods, I will work to count non-bots only.
I will NOT bet in this market, and will NOT vote in the poll.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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I will NOT bet in this market, and will NOT vote in the poll.
technically, not sure @IsaacKing 's vote in the poll should count (but also unlikely to matter & it was a somewhat silly exclusion in the first place so w/e)
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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