1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ177 | |
| 2 | Ṁ37 | |
| 3 | Ṁ30 | |
| 4 | Ṁ28 | |
| 5 | Ṁ19 |
People are also trading
@IsaacKing you said "The community guidelines don't prohibit it yet." and traders are trying to read your mind
@IsaacKing hmm well this is an educated guess, but I suspect what happened in this market is as follows:
-We announced in the screenshot Mira posted that we are going to implement a ban on mana transactions.
-We often announce things and then in the following days incorporate them into the guidelines. You commented that it wasn't actually written in the guidelines yet.
-They shortly were written into the guidelines and have been there since on this page. Seemingly after you commented based on Martin's reply to you asking me to officially add them to the guidelines.
I don't really know why it's so low, I guess people got confused and traded on your comment.
@IsaacKing There's no description, so initially we only had the question to go on. The question doesn't mention the community guidelines as a resolution criteria, only whether "Manifold" would attempt to make such a ban or limitation. Based on Will's question below, you made it clear that you were willing to resolve the market early if the appropriate conditions were met, also now strengthening the condition that it must be a "serious attempt". Manifold's community manager posted in the official #announcements channel the screenshot Mira linked below, which seemed to me to satisfy the criteria for "Manifold" attempting to ban third-party mana sales. You were aware of this post (and in the context of this market), but left the market open, suggesting that you had stricter implementation criteria you were envisioning. Your comment mentioning the community guidelines for the first time suggested that they might be part of the stricter criteria, but did not give confidence on exactly what your full criteria were.
When you became active on the site again, and the market stayed open, that served as some evidence that you believed the criteria to still not have been met (or perhaps simply that you had forgotten about this market). I, for one, had bought YES heavily after the criteria seemed obviously to have been triggered last May, and tried to derisk as time went on without the YES resolution I had expected a year ago.
Also, I can't say this with certainty now, but I believe I was regularly trying to check the community guidelines each time before I sold off more of my YES, and had the following experience:
1. In the app (which is primarily how I use Manifold) the link to the Community Guidelines is currently broken, and was probably missing or broken previously when I was checking.
2. Googling "Manifold Community Guidelines" shows this as the top two hits, suggesting that the top link has current guidelines and the second link has old ones:
The first link takes one here: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Community-Guidelines-39739056690b46f49b3573378eb484eb
Which still says nothing about the sale of third-party mana. As it turns out, the first link is also to an old version of the guidelines, which is noticeable if you are on desktop and look at the breadcrumbs, but is not discernable from the mobile version of the breadcrumbs. Nothing within the article itself makes it clear that these are not the current community guidelines/ that they have been updated/deprecated. I looked through several pages of Google results for "Manifold community guidelines", and I found no link to the correct, current community guidelines, so perhaps @SirSalty might want to notice as a takeaway that the community guidelines are hard to find.
I'm only one trader, but hopefully that gives you some insight on some of the factors at play.
@DavidChee Doc update please. Also a good use case for a wiki.
@WilliamHoward I'll wait a few days to make sure it's a serious attempt and not one employee making a decision that was almost immediately walked back once it was discussed with the others. If it was a serious attempt then this resolves YES, even if the company later changes their mind.