Will Landauer's limit be reached (to within a factor of 10) in practical computing devices before 2050?
Will Landauer's limit be reached (to within a factor of 10) in practical computing devices before 2050?
8
565Ṁ1842050
17%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landauer%27s_principle
Must be within any computing device that was made to be useful for some other purpose; not just to demonstrate low-energy computation.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?
37% chance
Will we reach the Landauer limit by 2028?
2% chance
Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?
55% chance
Will jose luis ricon's brain still calculate 10^24 or more FLOPS in 2040?
48% chance
Will most computers still run on silicon-based hardware in 2100?
38% chance
Will any supercomputer reach 1 zettaFLOP before 2035?
82% chance
[Metaculus] Will we be able to tolerate a 5% physical error rate in quantum computing by 2032?
19% chance
Will analog computers be more powerful and more common than digital computers by 2030?
5% chance
Will there be a consensus that hypercomputation is possible by the end of 2050?
12% chance
Will there be any significant technological developments after 2100?
87% chance