Resolves YES if I die and find myself in hell. Resolves NO if I die and find myself elsewhere. Resolves N/A if I die and it cannot be reliably determined where my soul is located.
@Simon1551 What's the base rate of people going to hell? Has there been any investigation into this?
@IsaacKing the error bars are large. Some theologians claim that nobody will be in hell, eg Rob Bell in Love Wins. Others that almost everyone will, eg anyone with a literal interpretation of Revelations.
@degtorad I think everyone agrees that it's not a serious market obviously we won't where he goes, assuming that people go somewhere after they die. And I'm sure that even if it was a serious market I'm sure most of us won't be using this app by the time he joins the other world. 🤔
@degtorad That doesn't matter for the market probability. It would only matter if I'm more likely to be able to resolve it YES than NO or vice versa.
@IsaacKing I mean it could effect the market's probability. Lets say someone is 99% sure you will go to hell, but they decide to only buy it up to 85% because they think it wouldn't be worth betting against the chance of an n/a resolve as it would mean he wouldn't be able to use it for a long time and not get anything in return. But I guess that applies for most markets