At Metagame, I executed some ...creative strategy to get myself chosen as purple team's Celestial minister, despite being on Orange team. Several members of purple team proceeded to offer me bribes to get me to play for them rather than throw the game. I was originally reluctant, but later realized it would be less entertaining for all the spectators if I concede or play poorly, so I accepted the bribes and played to my best ability.
Unfortunately, one of the bribes had been offered by someone whose name I foolishly did not note down. They mentioned that they had around 5 million mana on Manifold, didn't care much about it anymore, and thus offered me M$500,000 to play for the purple team. At the time I told them I'd think about it; only a few hours later at the Celestial game did I publicaly announce that I was accepting all bribes I'd been offered.
It could be argued that they made no guarantee the offer would still be available that evening, and everything that took place that weekend was all in good fun, so I won't be particularly upset if I never get it. Still: UNKNOWN PERSON, YOU OWE ME M$500,000.
Market resolves NO once I feel all hope is lost. At the latest this will be after the next Metagame, but might be sooner.
1,000was it @mckiev? no idea what was happening at metagame or who was there but there are only a handful of users off the top of my head with ballpark ~5mil mana (semi, jackson, ammon, joshua?), so if it was not mckiev & this was someone who did not in fact have 5m mana, that seems to make full bribe payment much less likely
@Ziddletwix Yeah the only people with 3+ million mana are:
mckiev: M$5,321,434
jacksonpolack: M$4,947,359
SemioticRivalry: M$4,129,708
AmmonLam: M$3,733,764
rossry: M$3,001,288
Seemed rude to tag them all in something like this, so I refrained. That doesn't take portfolio value into account though, nor people with multiple accounts.
Jackson was at Metagame so obvious first suspect, but IIRC I asked them about it afterwards and it wasn't them. Also they didn't care much about the team vs. team aspect of the weekend so I doubt they would have cared enough to bribe me.
Maybe Anton or Semiotic, but neither are in the Metagame discord, so I don't think they were there.
(I learned to their great amusement at Metagame that "Jackson Pollock" is in fact a famous painter, and not their real name.)
@IsaacKing that's the part i'm not as sure about the best way to proceed for, like probably either of us chooses values and the other accepts or refuses, the idea really is just to find mutually agreeable and mutually beneficial exchange. and also like you'd need to pinky promise that you're not just gonna accept the deal if you received adversely selecting information about whether or not you would end up receiving this bribe ig. I think if the bribe situation is met and you don't cancel the arrangement the bribe will go through with like 75% prob and i want a 20% premium so I think the math works out to if bribe goes through you send me 40k mana and if the bribe doesn't go through I send you 100k (or scaled if i wanted to insure the whole thing but that's a lot of risk so idk)? That could be the wrong math but seems preliminarily right to me
@Bayesian Simplest would probably be for me to just sell you the debt? The market currently indicates that being the debtee is worth 42% * M$500,000 = M$210,000. So if you believe the real chance is higher and/or you're less risk-averse than me, buying the debt from me for that amount would be mutually beneficial.
(Course, this method of determining value provides a strong incentive for you to bet the market down below your credence, and for me to bet it up above mine. Though if we both commit to follow-though on such a method after some period of time, then maybe it cancels out as we just fight each other to the true value.)
@IsaacKing Well, ok I haven't done the math but I would guess that if we both play optimally the outcome of that game will be us each betting against each other an amount that exactly cancels out what we stand to gain from the sale of the debt.