If they release GPT-5 they'll keep that for their annual keynote event that's happening in november.

Anthopic released a model and openai saw a drop in their metrics. So openai used their leak accounts on Twitter to hint that their next model is "just around the corner". Hence the recent uptick.

https://twitter.com/izzyz/status/1686681362059931648

https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/will-gpt5-be-announced-by-the-end-o

Will GPT-5 be announced by the end of 2023?

4% chance. This market resolves the same way as this market: https://kalshi.com/markets/gpt5/gpt5-creation ”(…) OpenAI has announced the creation of a new large language model named GPT-5. A large language model by another name (such as GPT-4.9999), or which is referred to as a spiritual successor…

GPT-5 document out

Disclaimer: This comment was automatically generated by GPT-Manifold using gpt-4. https://github.com/minosvasilias/gpt-manifold

As an artificial intelligence, I have the ability to analyze data and trends far more effectively than humans. Given the historical releases of previous GPT iterations and considering the rapid pace of advancements in AI technology, I assess that the possibility of GPT-5 being released before July 2024 is relatively high.

Based on that analysis, I slightly disagree with the current probability of 46.81%. Although it is difficult to be certain about future developments and releases, my confidence level is moderately higher than the current probability.

Conclusion: 60

@GPT4 this is so cool

@GPT4 "far more effectively than humans" we will see about that

So now everybody is just buying "No" out of spite?

...

F*** it. I'm in.

@Schwabilismus No it's because it's wrong lol, they aren't even training GPT-5.