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This is basically almost identical to will "the market" resolve NO.

@AlexRockwell Yeah, not sure why this market gives about a 10% larger change of Galen losing his mana than the original market has of resolving NO based on the market price. Even Mira's meta-market is at basically the same percentage as the original market, so it's not just because the original market has non-predictive profits.

@JosephNoonan Mira's market is a mirror and is therefore arbitragable, and therefore it is being arbitraged by bots. This one is sufficiently different that it's not being arbitraged.

I can't actually tell how much Mira lost as their portfolio page seems to have a bug, how are you determining it?

@ian Oh right, I forgot our profit sharing agreement was made via challenge bets, so it affected the displayed payout.

Hmm.

@IsaacKing You were thinking of the wrong market. We walked away on the 69% market just about even (a little positive even). The market where Mira lost all her mana was the next whalebait market https://manifold.markets/Gamble_market/this-market-resolves-yes-unless-tra-d8a8536ea76a

@jack Oh, you're right.

Well, I'll stick with what the title and description say, even if it makes less sense now.

@IsaacKing Maybe n/a?

I think reasonable choices are sticking with what the market says or n/a, but I'd probably prefer the former since the criteria are clear and anybody could have looked up Mira's losses, as you did.

Hmm well then again, the title says losses and in fact Mira had profits on that market, so that is definitely confusing.

@jack Profits are just negative losses, but if people feel this should resolve N/A I'm not super against that.

Looks like you've linked the wrong 69% market, one Mira didn't even trade in.

@DanStoyell Thank you, fixed.