David has made four bets that remain unresolved: $10k against Marcus Hutter and $10k against me that he can solve Navier-Stokes, $25k against Daniel Litt that he can solve Hodge, and $25k against Sridhar Ramesh that he can solve BSD.
I will also at my discretion add in any other similar bets I find out he's made on him solving famous mathematical problems, but only if they are $1000 or above, have reasonably unambiguous resolution criteria, and were made prior to March 2026. (And I'll be willing to resolve this early, and won't add in bets that occur after the market resolves.)
Will he pay out in full for every bet he loses within 2 months? (Legal-action-induced payments are allowed, but it has to happen within 2 months.)
Previous market: /IsaacKing/will-anybody-get-paid-by-david-budd
There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.
1,000
@Lexer It is generally believed that Budden is wealthy due to his former position at DeepMind. But this is new - which president is he related to, and how?
@IsaacKing couple clarifications: if the four people, yourself included, are paid, but are paid less than the stated bets, does that count as "being paid" for the purpose of this market? so, for example, Budden keeps saying he's going to donate $5k on Litt's behalf to a charity of his choice. Does this count as Litt being paid, even though the bet was that Litt himself (not a charity) would be paid $25k?
@polymathematic No, must be paid in full. (Within reason; if David sends a $25k wire and Daniel only receives $24,985 due to the wire fee, that still counts.)
not sure which two payouts he's referring to here. I guess the bets with @MarcusHutter and @ElliotGlazer? looks like maybe litt's and @IsaacKing's are on the chopping block.
On the plus side, confirmation that he did pay Hutter:
Aha! David had hinted at a 4th large bet, but I didn't know the details. Just found it thanks to @AhronMaline. This one will be included in this market as well.
@Simon74fe yes. The integrity involved in honoring promises is, I believe, very negatively correlated with the risk of being deluded about one's acheivements. And even more so, with putting up "proofs" that are very easily debunked, without checking
https://x.com/davidmbudden/status/2008026770969358369?s=20
Having been paid $1k and seeing him publicly commit to paying out one of his $10k wagers, I think we have strong evidence Budden is financially honorable. And the bets have clear enough terms that I doubt there will be any scenario of the form "Budden says he's won but it's clear to everyone else he didn't."