David has made three bets: $10k against Marcus Hutter and $10k against me that he can solve Navier-Stokes, and $25k against Daniel Litt that he can solve Hodge. (I may also at my discretion add in any other similar bets I find out he's made on him solving famous mathematical problems.)
If David loses none of these bets, or all bets are called off, this market resolves N/A. If he loses at least one, market resolves based on whether he fully pays out any of the bets he lost within 2 months of losing. (Legal-action-induced payments are allowed, but it has to happen within 2 months.)
There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.
Edit: David made a smaller bet with Elliot for 1k that he could provide a valid Lean proof of the Lean-Dojo formalization. I'll include that one too.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,012 | |
| 2 | Ṁ912 | |
| 3 | Ṁ439 | |
| 4 | Ṁ283 | |
| 5 | Ṁ230 |
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For those who were unhappy I included Elliot's bet, Marcus has confirmed he's been paid, so if it makes you feel any better this would have resolved YES anyway.
@retr0id (to be clear I'm very certain budden will lose at least one bet, but I have a feeling he may dispute or otherwise try to wriggle out of paying)
@draaglom Yeah it's cool that three of the four ppl who bet against Budden are here betting YES. It looks like Macus joined Manifold for that purpose!
But do any of them actually know the guy? My understanding was that the entire story happened on X, purely in response to Buddens anouncements. So the participants wouldn't have much privileged information.
@retr0id btw I agree with your sentiments re budden, but this market is ∃(bet),paid(bet) not ∀(bet),paid(bet)
@retr0id Well I’ve already won my bet and been paid. I’m just waiting for the market to resolve at this point.
Sure enough, he's trying to move the goalposts on the bet with Hutter:
https://x.com/davidmbudden/status/2005695044809089410?s=20
If you hadn't included the $1000 bet, I'd be buying NO real hard now
@IsaacKing my opinion watching this unfold is that there’s a maybe a 25% chance he says something like, “ok you guys are so unreasonable and ridiculous, I’ll admit I ‘lost’ and I’ll to make donations in your names to charities of your choice while I revise the proof. All in good fun and we’ll make the world a better place. 🙂”
Hmmm @IsaacKing maybe I'd recommend leaving the initial terms of the market? Paying off a 10k bet is very different than a 1k bet, tbh, and I was willing to bet on the original 3 bets, but not any subsequent future bets that David made.
@bens fwiw I would have been willing to make the YES investments I have even if Isaac imposed a "$10k+ bets only" clause. That being said, it would be worth asking if any YES holders did so under awareness or prediction that David would involve himself him in smaller-money wagers.
@ElliotGlazer the description says "I may also at my discretion add in any other similar bets"; I was not expecting much smaller ones to count as "similar"