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@IsaacKing to be resolved

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Still seems extremely overvalued. This relies on so many factors that individually have a low probability of occurring. A Magic player makes their way to a Magic tournament and then bets on it on Manifold? Manifold doesn't have that massive a userbase right now, and a player would likely not make a market for an event they were playing in, both because they'd fear something like this coming up and because very few people would care enough about the event to bet on it. The more people care about it, the less likely the player is to make the market in the first place. So you have that probability, AND the chance that the event judge would be made aware of the market and then the odds of them taking action this way. I'd say ~10% is correct.

@izzetdelzed Yeah, a lot of this is contingent on how popular Manifold becomes among Magic players. But we already have a decent number of Magic players here, and I expect that'll increase.

And in fact we've already gotten some markets on tournaments, such as /AryehZax/will-i-top-8-the-pioneer-showcase-c

They prohibit real money wagering. If the US government hasn't banned Manifold I think that's an affirmative defense against WotC.

@AndrewHartman The rules don't say anything about it having to be real money.

@IsaacKing Because at the time they were written they didn't imagine having to specify.

@AndrewHartman The Infraction Procedure Guide explicitly says "the wager does not need to be monetary".

@IsaacKing This is the part where I take a deep sigh and painstakingly explain that that exists to cover wagers of monetary value that are not of actual currency - like say, cards.

@AndrewHartman Or, say, mana. :)