The creator of the largest Destiny market currently stands to make around M$11,000 by resolving it dishonorably. (Any resolution would be dishonorable, including N/A, since it's supposed to stay open forever.) Many of the smaller markets also have significant such incentives.
Anonymous internet memers are not known for their reliability.
1,000
3.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ2,289 | |
| 2 | Ṁ639 | |
| 3 | Ṁ442 | |
| 4 | Ṁ401 | |
| 5 | Ṁ318 |
@Odoacre also https://manifold.markets/onemodog/will-destiny-dye-his-hair-blue
(oops, discount that, that one is really old)
@Odoacre The PatMyron one was also discussed below and ruled not to count, since it wasn't intended to be permanent.
(edit: I previously said the market was created to manipulate this one, but Pat says that is false, apologies to Pat)
Seems like a pretty done deal since there currently seem to be only three (1)(2)(3) eligible markets (stonk format markets cannot be resolved) and they are made by @johnleoks and @destiny who I don't see misresolving.
Created 8 permanent markets if 50 traders would like to trade on any of them 😈
https://manifold.markets/PatMyron?tab=questions&ct=PSEUDO_NUMERIC
@PatMyron @IsaacKing This market resolution meets all the criteria listed. If insufficient, please provide reasoning.
@MagniorBjornsson Probably doesn't count because the linked market was only "permanent" in name, the description clearly stated a condition in which the market would resolve in contrast to other permanent markets which promise to never ever resolve.
@Agh Wait. Is this a market that was created before the "Stonk" type of question was implemented and is actually just outdated since those kind of markets can't be resolved?
@MagniorBjornsson I don't know, I'm just saying the difference to other stonks is that in a normal stonks market the creator explicitly promises to never resolve.
@Agh Correct. Pat's markets were obviously not intended to be permanent, as they explicitly said in the description that they might resolve some day. (I guess Pat was comfortable lying to people in the title, but felt that doing so in the description would be crossing a line? Not sure why.)
This market is about the concept of permanent stock markets, not about any market that happens to include the word "permanent" in their name. See also the Destiny blue hair one mentioned below for another example of a market that claimed to be a permanent stock but clearly wasn't.
The recent uptick is probably about https://manifold.markets/onemodog/will-destiny-dye-his-hair-blue. It seems to meet the criteria of being permanent and having at least 50 traders.
For the record, I’m pretty sure it wasn’t resolved maliciously, and that the name was changed as a joke (“we all know he’ll never do it”). As evident in the comments, the vocal traders expected and wanted it to resolve. I messaged onemodog off-site myself reminding him to either do that or respond to comments. (I guess that’s a minor-in-scale COI.)
Up to y’all if that counts.
@IsaacKing No, it was changed very shortly after creation. Created: November 12, 2022, 00:33:19 GMT (1668213199443 Unix time). Renamed: “Nov 11, 4:38 pm” (unknown time zone?).
@yaboi69 Did most traders expect it to remain open forever? Was it being advertised as a true permanent stock?
@IsaacKing ad #1🤷♂️ , ad #2 don’t see it advertised at all in chat logs, Discord, or on Reddit.
@0o0 Kinda sussy that the user that made this market also has a bunch of random unknown name no description no activity permanent markers LULW... Surely it couldn't be setting up for something...