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At this point, I think we can probably say that any new market that clears this threshold was an attempt to manipulate this market, so it almost assuredly resolves NO

@firstuserhere 👀

Probability dropping off after Manifold charges a 25% cut on added liquidity

The highest so far is https://manifold.markets/Mira/will-a-prompt-that-enables-gpt4-to, which is only half of what's needed.

@Mira I'm curious how that market got such a high subsidy? (Also I think the title is incorrect, it's only M$22,950 after subtracting the starting M$50 and the M$2000 for the number of traders.)

@IsaacKing The subsidy is needed because it could cost people hundreds of dollars in GPT-4 API costs to make an attempt. For the 32k model that is marked up by resellers(since you can't get access from OpenAI), it can cost $75 to even attempt a single puzzle. So I needed to make the pot large enough to attract attention.

Since people set up limit orders, I'm not sure it really needs any more liquidity at this point. But I would subsidize it up to M50k just out of my account if Manifold was a bigger site and I thought there was too much price slippage.

I added M13k and Manifold added M12k(M10k showcase market, and M2k trader liquidity).

@IsaacKing This market is at 32k

https://manifold.markets/Joshua/who-will-be-time-person-of-the-year?r=U2h1bXAis

Who will be Time Person of the Year 2023? [Free Response - Fixed Payout - Unique Trader Bonuses For Your Answers!]

If the person of the year is not a single person but something abstract, resolves to the single closest answer. Duplicate answers of single people will not be selected, but you are welcome to submit your own wording variants for answers like AI. This question's close date will be adjusted as necessary to close just before the person of the year is expected to be announced. Also note that under the latest update if you submit an answer to a free response prompt like this, you will get mana when someone new trades on it! [image]If the Time Person of the Year is multiple people, I will resolve equally to all non-duplicate correct submitted options. However, you are not allowed to submit multiple people in a single answer. In 2020 I would have resolved 50% to Joe Biden and 50% to Kamala Harris if they were both submitted, or 100% to Joe Biden if Kamala Harris was not submitted. I would not resolve to "Joe Biden and Kamala Harris" in any scenario, and would only resolve to "Other" if neither was submitted as an option.

@Shump I think nearly 100% of that is unique trader liquidity bonuses, not real people subsidizing it.

@WilliamEhlhardt No, only about 2k of it is, see my reply above.

@IsaacKing with multiple response markets the subsidy is per trader per response, so there is more than 2k trader liquidity because many have traded on multiple responses.

@MartinRandall It's a binary market.

@IsaacKing William/Martin are responding to Shump, who posted a different market on this subthread.

@RobertCousineau Oh, I see. Manifold's blocking system really needs work...

This would be highly influenced by whether or not liquidity is incorporated into recommendations and search

To clarify, if the subsidies are on this market, that won’t make this market resolve YES?

@Gabrielle I think so, yeah. Anyone providing M$50,000 here can then just bet on YES, which makes it not a "real" subsidy.

Is it right to assume M$50,000 <= US$500? I expect that this question (or a similar one) ought to be valued at least as much as $500 by the EAs using this site:

It's kind of strange to me that liquidity isn't much higher on these kinds of questions: the value of info is pretty high for those who might be affected by changes to EVF, and that $500 is probably going to end up being donated to an EA charity down-the-road anyway, right?

While I agree there are questions worth more asked on Manifold, I question whether adding liquidity to a Manifold market on it is the best way to spend that money to get the answer desired

Does this include numeric/range/date markets?

Does it include multiple choice markets (based on combined liquidity if answers have separate pools)?

Does this include numeric/range/date markets?

Yes.

Does it include multiple choice markets (based on combined liquidity if answers have separate pools)?

I'm fine with including the current kind of multiple-choice markets. However if Manifold ever gets around to implementing grouped binary markets, such as a single market for all 50 state elections, I wouldn't want to count that, since that would effectively be 50 individual markets each getting M$1000 in subsidies.