Will any market have at least M$50,000 in user-given liquidity subsidies by the end of 2023?
63%
chance

Unique trader subsidies don't count towards the total, it must be subsidies that one or more users added themselves. I will ignore markets that were clearly made to game this one or where the liquidity subsidy isn't actually incentivising prediction, such as a market that says "I'll resolve this market however I please".

In essence I'm trying to ask "Will there be a question that people really want to know the answer to?"

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MartinRandall avatar

Does this include numeric/range/date markets?

Does it include multiple choice markets (based on combined liquidity if answers have separate pools)?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
is predicting YES at 68%

Does this include numeric/range/date markets?

Yes.

Does it include multiple choice markets (based on combined liquidity if answers have separate pools)?

I'm fine with including the current kind of multiple-choice markets. However if Manifold ever gets around to implementing grouped binary markets, such as a single market for all 50 state elections, I wouldn't want to count that, since that would effectively be 50 individual markets each getting M$1000 in subsidies.