Will any market about the Manifold MTG tournament get at least 50 traders?
Basic
20
Ṁ3877
resolved Sep 12
Resolved
YES

Includes any market in the group. (Only if it should actually be there.) Ignores markets that seem like they aren't going to resolve any time soon, or that would cause a paradox.

https://manifold.markets/group/february-mtg-tournament

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None of the markets, except those traded with API keys, reached 50 traders.

I mean, if you count Isaac's army of 120 API keys, it's already occurred: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-austin-beat-marty-dettmann-in

@TylerColeman Yeah, I'm quite curious if this counts

predictedNO

@IsaacKing Yeah, it's the number that's listed on the market, so I think it makes sense? Although I'm now biased from my newly acquired YES shares

predictedNO

@IsaacKing the bot trades should not count since they are against TOS

predictedNO

@Odoacre They weren't bots and were not against the TOS at the time.

predictedNO

@IsaacKing they were effectively bots and they were against TOS even then

predictedNO

@Odoacre No, Manifold had stated that paying real people to create an account on your behalf was allowed.

predictedNO

Paying the to signup is not the issue here. Using their key to trade on your markets is.

predictedYES

@Odoacre Well, the idea is that they effectively authorized Isaac to trade on their behalf

predictedNO

Even if they did. It's still against the rules to manipulate markets that way.

@Odoacre I think it was probably against the spirit of the rules but in line with their text. Isaac was pretty good at that :)

predictedNO

Isn't this the very reason Isaac lost his badge?

Anyway I don't really care that much. Manipulate away

predictedNO

@Odoacre Yes, that was one of Manifold's stated reasons for removing my badge. And that's why I quit the site, because I'm not interested in sticking around if I'm going to be punished for their own inability to write rules that reflect what they actually mean.

predictedNO

It's still against the rules to manipulate markets that way.

Wasn't at the time.

predictedYES

do I have to go recruit traders for one of the other markets now

predictedNO

@Conflux Better hurry.

predictedYES

@IsaacKing Haha this one's actually the best target

predictedNO

@Conflux Yeah, because it's strictly easier to resolve YES than one of the "will this market get at least 50 traders" markets, and those can get to 50 relatively easily. But its title lacked the memetic power to get there.

@IsaacKing And also it's the open market about the tournament with the most traders already

Does it include this one ?

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