Will any market about the Manifold MTG tournament get at least 50 traders?
20
resolved Sep 12
Resolved
YES

Includes any market in the group. (Only if it should actually be there.) Ignores markets that seem like they aren't going to resolve any time soon, or that would cause a paradox.

https://manifold.markets/group/february-mtg-tournament

Get Ṁ500 play money

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Fedor avatar
Fedorbought Ṁ30 of NO

None of the markets, except those traded with API keys, reached 50 traders.

TylerColeman avatar
Tyler Coleman

I mean, if you count Isaac's army of 120 API keys, it's already occurred: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-austin-beat-marty-dettmann-in

19 replies
Conflux avatar
Conflux

@TylerColeman Yeah, I'm quite curious if this counts

IsaacKing avatar
Isaacpredicted NO
Conflux avatar
Confluxbought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@IsaacKing Yeah, it's the number that's listed on the market, so I think it makes sense? Although I'm now biased from my newly acquired YES shares

Odoacre avatar
Odoacrepredicted NO

@IsaacKing the bot trades should not count since they are against TOS

IsaacKing avatar
Isaacpredicted NO

@Odoacre They weren't bots and were not against the TOS at the time.

Odoacre avatar
Odoacrepredicted NO

@IsaacKing they were effectively bots and they were against TOS even then

IsaacKing avatar
Isaacpredicted NO

@Odoacre No, Manifold had stated that paying real people to create an account on your behalf was allowed.

Odoacre avatar
Odoacrepredicted NO

Paying the to signup is not the issue here. Using their key to trade on your markets is.

Conflux avatar
Confluxpredicted YES

@Odoacre Well, the idea is that they effectively authorized Isaac to trade on their behalf

Odoacre avatar
Odoacrepredicted NO

Even if they did. It's still against the rules to manipulate markets that way.

Conflux avatar
Confluxsold Ṁ452 of YES

@Odoacre I think it was probably against the spirit of the rules but in line with their text. Isaac was pretty good at that :)

Odoacre avatar
Odoacrepredicted NO

Isn't this the very reason Isaac lost his badge?

Anyway I don't really care that much. Manipulate away

IsaacKing avatar
Isaacpredicted NO

@Odoacre Yes, that was one of Manifold's stated reasons for removing my badge. And that's why I quit the site, because I'm not interested in sticking around if I'm going to be punished for their own inability to write rules that reflect what they actually mean.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaacpredicted NO

It's still against the rules to manipulate markets that way.

Wasn't at the time.

Conflux avatar
Confluxpredicted YES

do I have to go recruit traders for one of the other markets now

IsaacKing avatar
Isaacpredicted NO

@Conflux Better hurry.

Conflux avatar
Confluxpredicted YES

@IsaacKing Haha this one's actually the best target

IsaacKing avatar
Isaacpredicted NO

@Conflux Yeah, because it's strictly easier to resolve YES than one of the "will this market get at least 50 traders" markets, and those can get to 50 relatively easily. But its title lacked the memetic power to get there.

Conflux avatar
Confluxsold Ṁ167 of YES

@IsaacKing And also it's the open market about the tournament with the most traders already

Odoacre avatar
Odoacre

Does it include this one ?

1 reply
IsaacKing avatar
Isaac