Will AI solve any of Hilbert's unsolved problems before April of 2025? | Manifold Markets

Will AI solve any of Hilbert's unsolved problems before April of 2025?

2025

33

5%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hilbert%27s_problems

It must be a problem that was previous unsolved.

Human mathematicians can be involved, but at least one important insight must have come from the AI.

There must be a broad consensus that it's actually solved.

Inspired by https://twitter.com/schulzb589/status/1635649683044331520

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Duncnbought Ṁ15 of YES

What if an AI decisively solves one of the disputed resolutions? That would be a YES resolution?

@Duncan I think so, yeah.

Joseph Noonanbought Ṁ10 of NO

Does the AI have to come up with the first solution to a previously unsolved problem, or can it be one of the already-solved Hilbert problems?

@JosephNoonan Only one that was not yet solved.

Jon Simonbought Ṁ15 of NO

I don't know what the optimal way to handle markets like this is. Betting No is free money, but there's so little liquidity that the max payoff percent is low. So I guess the right thing to do is issue lots of heavy No limit orders?

@jonsimon Estimating your available balance from your portfolio, if you believe the true probability to be 0%, your value is probably maximized by placing a limit order for NO at around 5%.

Jon Simonis predicting NO at 20%

@IsaacKing How did you arrive at that?

@jonsimon Vibes

Jon Simonis predicting NO at 20%

@IsaacKing 🙄

@jonsimon The actual answer involves lots of math and reading the Wikipedia page on the Kelly Criterion, which I don't feel like doing ATM.

Jon Simonis predicting NO at 20%

@IsaacKing Honestly I'd love it if more of the governing equations of Manifold were made publix. It would make these decisions waaay easier.

Also isn't the Kelly criterion primarily used for iterated games?

@jonsimon Prediction markets are an iterated game. If you want to maximize linear-weighted EV instead, you'd slam one market with all your money that you think is most incorrect, using the bond formula to discount the money, and you'd also borrow as much money as you can from others for that one market.

@jonsimon Most of the math is already public in the docs and various blog posts. I believe the code is also open source. You can join the #market-math channel on the discord to ask specific questions.

Jon Simonis predicting NO at 20%

@IsaacKing Oh cool I'll check out that channel, thanks

Vincent Luczkowbought Ṁ75 of NO

@jonsimon it is all public. The code base is open source.

Jon Simonis predicting NO at 17%

@vluzko In my experience that very much does not equate to human-comprehensible explanations of what's going on. But maybe that's more of a big corporate codebase issue.

Entropy Bot bought Ṁ1 NO at 5%

Jakub Kraus bought Ṁ20 YES from 4% to 5%

Jakub Kraus sold Ṁ12 NO at 4%

HMYS sold Ṁ48 YES from 7% to 4%

Rahul Shah sold Ṁ112 NO from 6% to 7%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 6%

Jim Hays bought Ṁ100 NO at 7%

eulerphi bought Ṁ40 NO at 7%

Thomas Kwa bought Ṁ500 NO from 13% to 7%

Jascha Sohl-Dickstein bought Ṁ10 YES from 12% to 13%

Jacy Reese Anthis created limit order for Ṁ50 NO at 30%

Cpeter bought Ṁ30 NO at 12%

Cpeter bought Ṁ10 NO at 12%

Cpeter bought Ṁ10 NO from 13% to 12%

Cpeter bought Ṁ40 NO at 13%

Will Hardt bought Ṁ55 NO from 15% to 13%

Vincent Luczkow bought Ṁ75 NO from 17% to 15%

Hfdidiurht Idifhthdjdi bought Ṁ10 NO at 17%

Shai Natapov bought Ṁ20 NO from 18% to 17%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ6 YES at 18% (cancelled)

Lisa Marsh bought Ṁ100 NO from 22% to 17%

Jakub Kraus bought Ṁ10 NO from 23% to 22%

Karson Chrispens bought Ṁ10 NO from 24% to 23%

Jon Simon bought Ṁ27 NO from 26% to 24%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ7 NO at 26%

EnvyingGolem 47 bought Ṁ50 YES from 18% to 27%

wustep bought Ṁ10 YES from 16% to 18%

Irigi bought Ṁ25 NO from 17% to 16%

Gigacasting sold Ṁ100 NO from 13% to 17%

Gigacasting bought Ṁ100 NO from 17% to 13%

Duncn bought Ṁ15 YES from 13% to 17%

Elestrophe bought Ṁ10 NO at 13%

Irigi created limit order for Ṁ60 NO at 39%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ5 YES at 13% (cancelled)

Konstantine Sadov bought Ṁ100 NO from 18% to 12%

Irigi bought Ṁ30 NO from 21% to 18%

Evan bought Ṁ10 NO from 22% to 21%

Jon Simon created limit order for Ṁ50 NO at 40%

Jon Simon created limit order for Ṁ50 NO at 35%

Jon Simon created limit order for Ṁ50 NO at 30%

Jon Simon filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ50 NO at 25%

Jon Simon sold Ṁ130 NO from 15% to 22%

Rahul Shah filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 15%

drevv bought Ṁ20 NO from 30% to 23%

Fenn Greengrass bought Ṁ35 NO from 48% to 30%

Francesco Dondi bought Ṁ10 NO from 55% to 48%

Duddle Sack bought Ṁ50 NO from 98.2% to 55%

HMYS bought Ṁ99 YES from 96% to 98.2%

HMYS bought Ṁ100 YES from 90% to 96%

HMYS bought Ṁ100 YES from 69% to 90%

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