Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in New Hampshire?
15
45
270
2025
87%
chance

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bought Ṁ10 of NO

D+0.3 partisan lean, 91% feels high

predicts YES

@AndrewG Biden won the state by a margin of 7 percentage points in 2020, both of its Representatives are Democrats, and both of its Senators are Democrats. Unless the polls suddenly shift a lot in Republicans' favor, I think around 85-90% is reasonable.