Who will win the Manifold MTG tournament? (Sponsored by Wobbles)
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Plus
21
Ṁ15k
resolved May 22
100%51%
Conflux
0.1%
Journcy
0.0%
Isaac King
0.1%
Odoacre
0.2%
Austin
0.2%
Tobias Vyseri
0.0%
Wobbles[DesTiny]
0.0%
SirSalty
0.0%
Jacob Dean
0.1%
Prigoryan
0.0%
Tyler Coleman
0.1%
Gustavo Mafra
0.1%
Multicore
0.4%
Marty Dettmann
0.0%
Ian
47%
mqp

This will be the central location for tournament info. See also the #mtg-tournaments channel in the Manifold Discord server. All markets about this tournament can go into the February MTG tournament group.

We have 16 competitors. We're going to be running this as a traditional Swiss tournament of 5 rounds, followed by a cut to top 4 single elimination. The prize payout is:

1st place: M$2000

2nd place: M$1400

3rd and 4th place: M$650 each

5th through 8th place: M$100 each

Your deck must be one of the 15 provided intro decks. (5 monocolor and 10 bicolor.) Please make sure you're using the Alchemy versions and not the Standard versions. You may swap decks in between rounds, but must use the same deck for all games of a single match. You also can't swap decks in the top 4, so the finals match must be played with the same deck you used in the semifinals.

All the normal rules about money and match result determination do not apply to this tournament. You can wager on the matches, bribe your opponent, bet against yourself and then concede, etc. The only rule is that you must be honest about what you did afterwards, so we can decide whether this is a good idea for future tournaments. Any wagers/bribes should occur only in mana, favors, or other items of non-monetary value. No real money.

I strongly recommend that you stream your match in the Manifold discord voice channel, or some other streaming platform. (Discord is very easy to stream to, it's all built in. Just join the voice channel and click the "go live" button.) This will let people spectate and place live bets on your games, which is more fun for everyone. Give people a heads up in discord and/or the market a few hours in advance, so they know when to show up to spectate.

Spectators should not provide gameplay advice to the players during a match, unless both players have indicated that they're ok with that. Players may not stream snipe their opponent. Looking at your opponent's decklist is allowed, even while the game is ongoing. (Decklists can be found here.) Looking up any other strategical information during the match is not allowed. (Looking up rules and card text is fine.) Betting in markets about your own match is allowed, even if seeing the current probability could give you some informantion about your opponent's hand. However, please don't read the comments or any Discord channels that may contain discussion about the match. The match should primarily be your skills and knowledge at play, not those of other people.

Note that we're using the traditional best-of-3 tournament matches, not Arena's default best-of-1. When you go to create a challenge, use the match type selection box in the top right and choose "Alchemy tournament match". (Screenshot)

For simplicity and ease of locating information, please always report your match result on the market that I made about that match outcome, including who won with what score, and what decks both people were playing.

You can see the current standings and results here.

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@Conflux i'd like to thank the academy

Closing this now to prevent the issue with DPM markets when someone can pour arbitrary mana into the winning option once it's known.

Wizards has apparently made some changes to the default decks that Arena provides. Please vote in discord as to how you'd like to continue the tournament.

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1077484177626255381/1090376678829723708

Is March 30 the actual close date, or are you going to close at a specific point in the tournament? Being a parimutuel market, this might impact my early bet strategy.

@TylerColeman I'll try to close it shortly before the final match ends.

@IsaacKing I guess I needn't bet until the final match, when the info density is the highest. I don't often bet on parimutuel, but as I understand it, there's no penalty for pulling out your money before the close date, or for delaying putting in until just prior. It works just like Twitch predictions, am I right?

@TylerColeman Of course, you could close the market at any time, so there could be that penalty.

@TylerColeman I think it's still better to bet in advance, since if you can successfully predict which players are going to win matches other than the finals, you can make mana after they do so and their probabilities become higher.

@IsaacKing Oh, yes, I didn't realize the sell price could move from the original buy price. Now I understand that timing does matter.

Oh, I just thought of something. Most of the action in the individual-match markets takes place within a few minutes while the match is being played. This means that the liquidity subsidies from all the traders don't have time to actually enter the market, so the market ends up being much less liquid than it should be during the active betting window. I think an easy fix for this is if everyone who plans to watch the match place a M$1 bet in advance, and then the liquidity will be there by the time the match occurs.

Round 2 pairings are available at https://challonge.com/manifoldmtg. Good luck!

Would anyone mind if Ian and mqp joined the tournament late, playing each other for round 1? It's being discussed in the Discord.

@IsaacKing It's early enough for it not to be a problem

Alright, they're in! They'll be using their mystical Manifold employee powers to add themselves in to this market.

Bettors should update their bets on other markets accordingly. (e.g. we're now going to have 43 total matches rather than 38, which makes all the "will X happen" markets more likely.)

The extra M$100 in entry fees will go to 3rd and 4th place.

Reminder to choose "Alchemy Tournament Match" when challenging your opponent, to ensure that you're using the Alchemy cards and the best-of-three match structure.

Correct Alchemy decklists are here: https://mtgazone.com/mtg-arena-starter-decks-2023/

@IsaacKing I'm not sure those are fully up to date. For instance their decklist for Balancing Act includes a copy of Life of Toshiro Umezawa, which is not in the current version of that deck on Arena.

@JacobDean Ah, ok. Know of a more updated list?

@IsaacKing No, I haven't been able to find one unfortunately.

@JacobDean you can just export the list from the game

Anyone wanna volunteer to grab decklists from all 15 decks? If you send them to me as a text file, I'll format them nicely and host them somewhere.

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