@IsaacKing is running an MTG tournament with some prizes but also markets. If the tournament occurs with no rules banning throwing or banning betting against yourself, will players regret it after the tournament? Maybe it won't be an issue, or maybe it'll be a fun extra dimension, we'll see.
Resolves YES, NO, or to an appropriate percentage according to my judgement after discussing this issue with people after the tournament. Resolves N/A if the tournament does not occur or we do end up banning this.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ8 | |
| 2 | Ṁ8 | |
| 3 | Ṁ7 | |
| 4 | Ṁ6 | |
| 5 | Ṁ4 |
People are also trading
Overall it seems like people don’t really “regret” it - it was appreciated as an experiment - but also don’t really think we should do the next tournament this way. I was a bit vague beforehand about what counts as regretting, but I think 1/4 is about fair.
@IsaacKing Good questions. For the first one, I would lean towards YES, since we regretted it enough to switch!
For the second one, probably a percentage, but the main question I’m considering is “Will we think this was a bad decision in retrospect?” So leaning towards NO.
@Conflux Okay, lemme clarify. If it’s more that people liked having done it once but don’t want to do it in the future, that’s more toward NO. If people didn’t like having done it but just have very nuanced opinions about exploration/exploitation tradeoffs, that’s more toward YES. I maybe was answering your hypothetical as if it was the first thing, when you meant the second thing?
@Conflux I was thinking of the first. I generally don't "regret" doing things that turned out poorly, as long as I think the decision was correct in expectation given what I knew at the time.
@IsaacKing Alright. I think if it goes badly, it will probably go badly in the predictable way, so probably this market will end up as a proxy for whether not banning throwing makes the tournament less fun.