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I read every comment section related to WvM alts that I could find. There are somewhere between 0 and 373 alts.

Conflux said the official count of Minnows is 949 and Whales are 575, but we need to remove Alts.

If there were 373 alts, this market would resolve to 57.55% (1151)

If there were 0 alts, this market would resolve to 76.25% (1525)

At one point, Conflux claimed there were 11 accounts with "Alt" in the name, which would bring this down to (1514)

One post claims the alts amount is between 11 and 111, but I do not think this is substantiated.

Several posts say that there is officially no official determination of the number of alts.

This market closed at its current value of 1473, that would seem to indicate people at the time thought there were 52 alts.

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This is never going anywhere, as evidenced by multiple separate attempts to get it to resolve.

The biggest differences to any individual users between a 1525 resolution and a 1151 resolution are: 128 mana for tornado, 56 mana for Mira, 48 mana for Erriat, and 43 mana for Michael's Bot Laboratory.

I'm resolving this to 1463 based on my best guess after seeing all the public evidence, and the comment from MayMeta below. If you think you got screwed over, convince someone to N/A it instead.

@IsaacKing Do you want help calculating this?

@oh I'm waiting for Manifold to allow API access to this market again so I can see the list of positions. If you want to count them by hand, or have an alternative method, go for it!

@IsaacKing you could get trades from Supabase and calculate positions

@IsaacKing I got 950 users with NO shares, 88 users with YES shares:

https://pastebin.com/raw/2iXBmFdn

@CodeandSolder Also need the total shares held by the YES holders.

@IsaacKing 5751965.3135

@CodeandSolder Alright, so that's 1525 points. What's the best way to go about determining how many accounts were alts?

@IsaacKing table user_seen_markets has device_id, that only matches if the browser is the same AFAIK but it would be a lower bound

@IsaacKing Has any progress been made? I took a >4 month break from manifold and this still hasn't resolved.

@Conflux @jack @MartinRandall Any chance you three had calculated a final point score?

@IsaacKing No chance, sorry.

so... what's the plan here?

According to the official resolution comment the final point total is at least 1151 (575+576) and at most 1513 (575+949-11 self declared alts). I don't think that there were more than 50 non-declared alts, so IMO the 'best guess' resolution shouldn't be lower than 1463.

@MayMeta Something in that range seems pretty reasonable, yeah

Also I should mention that if the council thinks it's obvious which side won and doesn't give us an exact estimate, I'll just take my best guess.

As of right now the total ignoring fake accounts is 230. Counting fake accounts would probably bring it down to 220 or so.

@IsaacKing what means are you using to determine fake accounts

@Wobbles He's already said it is an eyeball test

@blake No, the council will be going through them all as necessary in order to determine the answer.