What is the least likely thing that will happen in January 2024?
28
2.9kṀ6572resolved Feb 5
100%29%
This very market unexpectedly reopens.
0.5%
All matter in the universe vanishes due to random quantum tunneling
6%
New Year’s Day will occur as scheduled.
5%
Biden announces he will not run for re-election
0.5%
Irrefutable evidence of extraterrestrial life is discovered.
0.6%
AI wipes out humanity
3%
A U.S. Presidential candidate dies.
5%
A SpaceX Starship lifts off the launch pad
2.0%
The US Government will have a partial shutdown
7%
Jimmy Carter Dies
2%
One day after closing, this option displays a probability <1%.
4%
Eliezer Yudkowski writes a tweet/xeet containing the word "rationalussy."
5%
Donald Trump is convicted of a crime.
0.6%
The preprint on the room temperature ambient pressure superconductor replicates.
0.6%
2+2 becomes equal to 5.
0.6%
The Sun does not not ... not explode, where the number of 'not's is equal to the busy beaver value Σ(5).
7%
The S&P 500 goes up over the month
7%
Mira's Main GPT-4 Sudoku Market will resolve to NO https://manifold.markets/Mira/will-a-prompt-that-enables-gpt4-to
4%
Mira's Main GPT-4 Sudoku Market will resolve to YES https://manifold.markets/Mira/will-a-prompt-that-enables-gpt4-to
5%
Something Unanticipated Happens: https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/will-nothing-unanticipated-happen-b
Answers to this market can be any prediction of something that will happen in the future.
At the end of 2023, I will take a note of all the current options and their probabilities. Here's what they were:
At the end of January, I will check and see which of those predictions occurred during January. Out of all predictions that came to pass, I will resolve this market to the one that had the lowest probability at the beginning of January.
If there's significant ambiguity as to whether a certain prediction occurred, I will err on the side of saying it didn't. Please be as unambiguous as possible.
If one of the predictions comes to pass before January, that doesn't count. Only events in January are considered.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,168 | |
| 2 | Ṁ211 | |
| 3 | Ṁ93 | |
| 4 | Ṁ66 | |
| 5 | Ṁ34 |