Answers to this market can be any prediction of something that will happen in the future.
At the end of 2023, I will take a note of all the current options and their probabilities. Here's what they were:
At the end of January, I will check and see which of those predictions occurred during January. Out of all predictions that came to pass, I will resolve this market to the one that had the lowest probability at the beginning of January.
If there's significant ambiguity as to whether a certain prediction occurred, I will err on the side of saying it didn't. Please be as unambiguous as possible.
If one of the predictions comes to pass before January, that doesn't count. Only events in January are considered.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,168 | |
| 2 | Ṁ211 | |
| 3 | Ṁ93 | |
| 4 | Ṁ66 | |
| 5 | Ṁ34 |
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Alright, apologies for the screwup. I'm resolving to the correct answer given my mistake, since some people did correctly predict it, so props to them. The answer that would otherwise have won is "New Year’s Day will occur as scheduled", so I manalinked everyone holding YES shares on that answer the payout they would have received.
I just realized there's no reason to leave this market closed, I just need to keep track of what their probabilities were at the beginning of January and turn off submission of new answers. Reopened, feel free to bet on which will occur. (Remember this doesn't resolve to the one that happens first, but to the one that had the lowest probability in the screenshot below out of all the ones that happen in January.)
@IsaacKing Oh wait no, one of the answers is "this market reopens", so it's unfair to traders for me to make that happen. Hmm. Awkward.
@IsaacKing Wait, so are you actually going to resolve the market to "this market unexpectedly reopens" (unless Trump is convicted of a crime)?
@manyu No that's my bad, I thought reopening wouldn't harm anyone, but I didn't realize it would affect the answers, so I'm just pretending that didn't happen.
I agree that this is basically the exact case in which that option could resolve YES, but I also think that if there's some kind of implicit assumption in the original close date / criteria, we can say that in some sense that answer was always invalid because there was no way for it to resolve YES if the market was handled as traders expected.
this seems like the bar to beat as whales can always bet this option down at the last minute if it’s profitable enough. Sort of spoils the spirit of the market IMO. (Given the wording it can only resolve after 2023 so it won’t be discounted from being lower than 1% earlier than 2024). The dynamics of this option are a bit confusing just as a stand-alone itself.
@parhizj If whales bet that option down to below 1%, they'll lose mana when it resolves YES. What's the problem?
@IsaacKing It’s profitable if they can bet down enough NO on all the other options where they earn more mana when those NO bets resolve NO than any loss from betting down this option.
@parhizj That's not possible, answers are zero-sum. Betting NO on all the options is the same as not buying anything at all.
@IsaacKing You’re right ( I was thinking this was one of those other multi question type markets). I don’t know then, why include such a confusing option ? Maybe I’m the only one confused by it. ( it is suspicious to me)
@IsaacKing I guess it doesn't actually matter because "New Years will happen as scheduled" is guaranteed to be true.