Many binary markets have two roughly equivalent primary outcomes. For example, whether a democrat or a republican president wins the election. Right now, we have to arbitrarily pick one option to highlight in the market, such as "Will a democrat win the election?". This is inelegant and skews the market, since it could bias how traders think about the result, and an unexpected result (like an independent candidate winning) will favor one side or the other. This can be solved by using a multiple-choice market instead and creating only two choices. However, multiple-choice markets have a worse UI; can't see limit orders in a single place, can't see positions in a single place, graph looks worse, etc. This could be fixed by improving multiple-choice markets and/or giving us the option to label binary markets outcomes with labels other than "YES" and "NO".
Often there are colors associated with certain market outcomes, such as blue for democrats and red for republicans. But market graphs don't let us pick their colors; on binary markets we're stuck with green and white, and on multiple-choice markets we're stuck with a predetermined selection. Letting the market creators choose what colors represent which options would be a nice aesthetic improvement, and also make it easier for people to hold in their mind what option means what. This answer resolves based on the proportion of market types we get it for. e.g. If they add it for binary markets but not multiple choice, it resolves to 50%.
Automatic market resolution defined in terms of data sources refers to something like Data Points or The Super Market.
Please suggest other improvements and I'll add them as answers. For last year's market, see /IsaacKing/will-manifold-give-us-more-finegain
Note that these answers have significant overlap. Any codebase change that resolves "Binary markets as an N=2 special case of linked multiple choice markets" to YES would likely (but not guaranteed) also resolve "Binary markets with outcomes other than YES/NO" to YES.
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@IsaacKing Why did this resolve NO? The feature exists and it was added in February 2024.
However it only exists for MC questions, so it should probably resolve to 50%.
@Gabrielle is it not still the case that you can change the colours on a binary market? maybe that's only if it's a binary MC? I've done it in the past but haven't tried recently.
this one is definitely 50% at minimum.
@shankypanky Yes, binary MC (an MC with two options) allows it, just not traditional binary markets - or the numeric/date markets for that matter, though they didn't exist when the feature was added.
@Gabrielle Ah, good catch. I looked around for such an option on a test binary market, but I didn't check on multiple choice, it didn't occur to me they might add the feature inconsistently. (Sigh. Arguably not "elegant", but whatever.)
Given that I resolved "Binary markets with outcomes other than YES/NO" to YES, that means that I'm counting the improved multiple-choice UI for two-choices as a "binary market", and thus I think user-chosen graph colors should resolve to 100% since it effectively can be done on a binary market at least if the creator thinks about it at market creation.
Please re-resolve if you can.
@Isaacking2 Tagging as well, in case you're active with only your alt
Example: https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-first-trump-vs-har-thjpt3tw3d
Can see limit orders in a single place in the order book
Graph is clean; looks like a binary market colored orange and blue
The UI is practically a binary market with the options named other than "YES" / "NO"
But technically it's a "multiple choice, dependent" market type
Suggestion: Poll-like markets where everyone can only bet a fixed amount on one option in linked, or each option in unlinked, and once in binary too. No need to his prices before they bet. Basically, a slow moving market that may distribute profit more widely
Suggestion: polls as a special case of mcUL markets, where you're only allowed to spend 1 mana one time per market and can't see prices or positions until you bet, and rather than percent price it shows the count of YES and LONG positions and has no payout.
Suggestion: controlling participation based on user criteria such as account age, profit, history of participation, etc all automatically as part of the market definition.
@IsaacKing it's like a private market with a bodyguard. Not having casuals in a market is significant. Not absolute but interesting
The fact that you can't invest in companies tol you're accredited is definitely an aspect of SV's culture
@JamesGrugett No, since multiple-choice markets have much worse UI. It's still preferable to make a binary "will the Democrats win the election" market than to make a multiple-choice market with options of Republicans and Democrats.