This market resolves to the prime factors of 25195908475657893494027183240048398571429282126204032027777137836043662020707595556264018525880784406918290641249515082189298559149176184502808489120072844992687392807287776735971418347270261896375014971824691165077613379859095700097330459748808428401797429100642458691817195118746121515172654632282216869987549182422433637259085141865462043576798423387184774447920739934236584823824281198163815010674810451660377306056201619676256133844143603833904414952634432190114657544454178424020924616515723350778707749817125772467962926386356373289912154831438167899885040445364023527381951378636564391212010397122822120720357.

@TomShlomi 1 is not a prime number. If the number itself is prime, then the prime factorization would just be the number itself.

@JoshuaB Oh I know. I was just creating an arbitrary answer to increase the number of traders in this market for https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-any-of-of-my-open-markets-crea

Does it resolve 50/50 to the two prime factors, or is it done in proportion to the size? The prime factors seem to have historically been within around a power of 2 of each other, and it would be a really hilarious skew to have.

I do absolutely adore this market, since any bet here can be easily checked whether it factors RSA-2048, which presumably was the intention.

@placebo_username It's a bet that humans made a mistake somewhere and the number is accidentally a prime itself. Highly unlikely given how many people would have had to fail to notice, but still vastly more likely than any of the ~10^1227 other options.

@IsaacKing There's at least one of the ~10^1227 other options which, after a few seconds of deliberation, I'd deem more likely than accidental primality RSA-2048.