https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_China_balloon_incident

Resolves once China and/or the US declassifies or leaks enough information for me to be highly confident one way or the other.

It does not matter whether it was activly spying on the US, or intended to be doing so. Only whether the equipment inside and intention of its construction was to be able to spy on some country. (As opposed to a weather balloon or hobbyist balloon.)

In the event that its origin is discovered to not be the Chinise government, this resolves NO.