In 2018 Bloomberg, generally known for high accuracy standards published a story about Chinese spy chips allegedly found in Super Micro servers: https://archive.is/n3X0v
Pretty much every major party named, from Amazon and Apple to government organizations, denied there is any truth to those claims.
In 2021 Bloomberg acknowledged the denials but doubled down on the claims and even expanded them: https://archive.is/ztLIr
This market resolves to YES or NO if I consider either answer more than 95% probable by the end of 2030, otherwise to my estimated probability then.
@RobertCousineau I notice I am confused:
literally everybody denied it, no solid evidence was ever presented
as described the chip is somewhat possible but a weird place to put it
Bloomberg generally does not make stuff up and their claimed sources are extensive
they seem to have gotten some factual details like infrastructure organization at Apple verifiably wrong
their claims are all over the place with different vectors, levels of sophistication and so on, some lesser claims seem very plausible
NSA, Apple and friends have lied about simmilar stuff before
servers naturally reach second hand markets, if that was true it's likely somebody would have found one of those chips and done a Defcon talk on it
My best guess would be buy at 20 sell at 50, I think