Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if credible reporting confirms that Russia has sent a spy balloon into U.S. airspace. Resolution requires:

• Official U.S. government acknowledgment (Pentagon, State Department, or intelligence agencies) of a Russian spy balloon entering U.S. airspace

• Confirmation that the balloon is intended for surveillance purposes

• The balloon must cross into U.S. airspace (including territorial waters and airspace above U.S. territory)

Resolution sources: Official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense, State Department, or intelligence community briefings; major news outlets reporting on official government confirmations.

The market resolves NO if no such incident occurs by the resolution date. If a Russian balloon enters U.S. airspace but is not confirmed as a spy balloon, the market resolves NO.

Background

Russia's Dolgoprudny Design Bureau of Automation partnered with Bauman Moscow State Technical University in December 2024 to develop long-duration stratospheric balloon platforms for military reconnaissance, communications, and surveillance. Russia has historically used balloons for espionage and other military purposes.

The precedent for this question comes from a Chinese balloon that flew across North American airspace from January 28 to February 4, 2023, and was shot down by the U.S. Air Force off the coast of South Carolina.

Considerations

Stratospheric balloons operate at altitudes of 30-40 km, beyond the reach of most fighter jets and anti-aircraft missiles, making them harder to detect or intercept than drones or aircraft. However, in the modern Russian military, there remains a limited niche for these kinds of balloons, although with spy balloons back on the international agenda, it's possible they could become part of a broader resurgence.