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Y'all are wonderful.

I am so baffled by you people's decision making process. Reminds me of when I play multiplayer card games with people and some of them decide to intentionally lose the game just to screw up someone else's plan.

@IsaacKing I made Alex a deal in secret

@MarcusAbramovitch Right, but both of you could have made more by sharing the deal with me and getting me to make you a better offer.

How would I stand do gain more?

@MarcusAbramovitch You and Alex combined had 2508 YES shares. I had 5431 NO shares. It's net positive for the three of us to pool our shares and resolve the market NO, so you'd have made more by extracting such a deal from me.

@IsaacKing I made a lot in derivate markets

@IsaacKing Didn't Alex specifically bring up this point, after which you said you wouldn't make a better offer because you "weren't incentivized to"?

@BoltonBailey

I could, but as far as I'm aware nobody else has made you a better offer, so I don't see what incentive I have to do so.

@IsaacKing Still doesn't change that Alex tried to continue to negotiate. What could he have done to "extract a better deal" from you as you put it?

@IsaacKing It's also not so simple as you suggested. Sure it's net positive for the "three of us" to pool shares and resolve NO. But it can be more net positive for Alex and I to just "screw" you

@IsaacKing lolol, Isaac is salty hehe

@MarcusAbramovitch I don't think so? 5431 is more than twice 2508, so if I give you all my NO shares and the market resolves NO, you come out further ahead than resolving it to YES. (Not counting the derivative markets.)

Ill tell you that I made ~2300 mana here. Ill look to see how much Alex made but i assume it's more than 700

If we were to numerically calculate Alex's profits, it would be 200 + 1000 + 50 given the initial reward for stealing and the two offers. That comes out to 1250 if he steals and Marcus splits.

In that case, Marcus would earn nothing.

If Alex splits and Marcus splits, he earns 100 + 549 = 649, while Marcus earns 2049.

If both steal then Alex earns 550 while Marcus earns 500.

If Marcus steals and Alex splits, Marcus earns 1200 while Alex earns nothing.

In summary, we may create a profit table attached.

It is overall far more profitable for Alex to choose Steal regardless of Marcus' choice.

However, when human factors come into play it is improbable to judge whether Alex's noble spirit will choose to split instead of steal.

As a trader in this market, I'd like to make an offer to our two contestants. If you both steal, I'll send you each M$500. If one of you steals and the other splits, I'll send the stealer M$1000. If you both split, I send you nothing.

@IsaacKing @MarcusAbramovitch @Messybones @JonathanRay @andrew You guys should consider counter-offering

@IsaacKing does this impact the stated market rules?

@MarcusAbramovitch No, those rules are unchanged. (To change them to benefit myself as a trader would be dishonorable.)

This is just me as a trader making an additional offer on top of the market rules. Anyone else could have done the same.

@IsaacKing I considered your offer, but comparing your and Marcus position in this market I feel I have a good chance of going home with more then M$500. Can you do better?

@AlexbGoode I could, but as far as I'm aware nobody else has made you a better offer, so I don't see what incentive I have to do so.

I have no plans to make another offer. I think Alex is an honest man

@MarcusAbramovitch Also remember guys that you will come of as more trustworthy if you split 🥰

@AlexbGoode I'll toss in another M$50 to you if you split. Just you though, I'm not made of mana.

Er, steal, rather. My bad

@MarcusAbramovitch Another offer? What was the first?

@IsaacKing yours.

@levifinkelstein I don't see why that would be true? Neither of them made any prior commitment to splitting, so I don't think choosing to steal has any impact on their trustworthiness. It's just one of two possible choices in the game.

@IsaacKing I believe @AlexbGoode will split. I am happy to bet you on that. That's basically why I made other markets