Sequel to /IsaacKing/split-or-steal-can-two-randomlychos
At market close, I'll randomly pick two people from the list of YES shareholders, weighted by their number of shares. (e.g. if someone has 50 shares they're twice as likely to be chosen as someone with 25 shares.)
I'll announce who they are, and they'll have 24 hours to PM me "split" or "steal". If they both choose "split", I'll send them each M$100. If one chooses "steal" and one chooses "split", I'll send the stealer M$200. If they both choose steal, they both get nothing.
Anyone who doesn't respond within 24 hours gets replaced with a new person.
Market resolves to YES if they both choose "split", and to NO if either chooses "steal". (And I'll publically share the results of who chose what.)
Context:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKaYRH6E36U
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yM38mRHY150
And the good one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0qjK3TWZE8
1,000
3.00@MarcusAbramovitch Right, but both of you could have made more by sharing the deal with me and getting me to make you a better offer.
@MarcusAbramovitch You and Alex combined had 2508 YES shares. I had 5431 NO shares. It's net positive for the three of us to pool our shares and resolve the market NO, so you'd have made more by extracting such a deal from me.
@IsaacKing Didn't Alex specifically bring up this point, after which you said you wouldn't make a better offer because you "weren't incentivized to"?
I could, but as far as I'm aware nobody else has made you a better offer, so I don't see what incentive I have to do so.
@IsaacKing Still doesn't change that Alex tried to continue to negotiate. What could he have done to "extract a better deal" from you as you put it?
@IsaacKing It's also not so simple as you suggested. Sure it's net positive for the "three of us" to pool shares and resolve NO. But it can be more net positive for Alex and I to just "screw" you
@MarcusAbramovitch I don't think so? 5431 is more than twice 2508, so if I give you all my NO shares and the market resolves NO, you come out further ahead than resolving it to YES. (Not counting the derivative markets.)
If we were to numerically calculate Alex's profits, it would be 200 + 1000 + 50 given the initial reward for stealing and the two offers. That comes out to 1250 if he steals and Marcus splits.
In that case, Marcus would earn nothing.
If Alex splits and Marcus splits, he earns 100 + 549 = 649, while Marcus earns 2049.
If both steal then Alex earns 550 while Marcus earns 500.
If Marcus steals and Alex splits, Marcus earns 1200 while Alex earns nothing.
In summary, we may create a profit table attached.
It is overall far more profitable for Alex to choose Steal regardless of Marcus' choice.
However, when human factors come into play it is improbable to judge whether Alex's noble spirit will choose to split instead of steal.
@IsaacKing @MarcusAbramovitch @Messybones @JonathanRay @andrew You guys should consider counter-offering
@MarcusAbramovitch No, those rules are unchanged. (To change them to benefit myself as a trader would be dishonorable.)
This is just me as a trader making an additional offer on top of the market rules. Anyone else could have done the same.
@IsaacKing I considered your offer, but comparing your and Marcus position in this market I feel I have a good chance of going home with more then M$500. Can you do better?
@AlexbGoode I could, but as far as I'm aware nobody else has made you a better offer, so I don't see what incentive I have to do so.
@MarcusAbramovitch Also remember guys that you will come of as more trustworthy if you split 🥰
@AlexbGoode I'll toss in another M$50 to you if you split. Just you though, I'm not made of mana.
@levifinkelstein I don't see why that would be true? Neither of them made any prior commitment to splitting, so I don't think choosing to steal has any impact on their trustworthiness. It's just one of two possible choices in the game.
@IsaacKing I believe @AlexbGoode will split. I am happy to bet you on that. That's basically why I made other markets