At market close, I'll randomly pick two people from the list of YES shareholders, weighted by their number of shares. (e.g. if someone has 50 shares they're twice as likely to be chosen as someone with 25 shares.)
I'll then announce who those people are and reopen the market. A day or two later, they will each PM me "split" or "steal". If they both choose "split", I'll send them each M$50. If one chooses "steal" and one chooses "split", I'll send the stealer M$100. If they both choose steal, they both get nothing.
Market resolves to YES if they both choose "split", and to NO if either chooses "steal". (And I'll publically share the results of who chose what.)
Context:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKaYRH6E36U
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yM38mRHY150
And the good one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0qjK3TWZE8
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🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ2,329 | |
| 2 | Ṁ885 | |
| 3 | Ṁ790 | |
| 4 | Ṁ227 | |
| 5 | Ṁ217 |
Alright, let's try this again. This time I won't reopen the market after choosing the participants, so the strategy of "buy a bunch of NO after I'm selected and steal" is not an option.
I calculate that @wylderai won 218 from this.
I profited 2329 and expect to give out around 500-1000 mana to others. (1300-1800 profit)
I can guarantee that if wylderai chose to negotiate, i would have made sure he was compensated handsomely, far more than 200M
Should anyone care to verify my RNG, my entropy was
This is my entropy mwahahaha bleeeerghand the output of my script was
SHA of entropy
7d1a7e659a46543ae0373068dfecbd591d06dda16792c18b5ffd30779f90c15f
04b430e58409dc462c54e2d5126a16a07c58b04371afea1cad2bc0f67705fd59
0.018374496492504947If you had split shares prior to March 28th at 3AM EST and lost money on this market and would like some back, send me a DM on discord
I have resolved my linked market. There is a 68.7% chance that I split. Before I roll the RNG and secretly send my response to Isaac, I'd like to invite someone to provide an unpredictable input to my RNG. I will use the first reply to this comment as input to the script described in this comment
Alright, looks like everyone's decided on what they're doing. @MarcusAbramovitch and @wylderai, please send me your final answers on Discord or email.
IsaacKing#7376
I'm going to lose mana on this market but I want to no longer commit to splitting with how @wylderai has decided to act. My intention was to form a scenario where we were both aligned and incentivized to split (both with large profits). This did not occur.
I'm not going to maximally take advantage of my change in position. I hope @42irrationalist and others can cut some losses. I will also be gifting some mana to those negatively affected (though not going to make you whole, just a little bit to soften the blow). I have learned my lesson for these markets that others won't do the straightforward approach, even when it would make them a lot more mana.
@MarcusAbramovitch This seems honorable and thoughtful. I just liquidated my Yes position for a small refund. I feel like participating in this market was a useful learning experience and am grateful @IsaacKing created it.
@MarcusAbramovitch like "rejection therapy" cold calling to get used to being turned down, I recommend playing online Diplomacy for getting used to other people playing games irrationally (i.e., not maximizing their winnings) and thereby screwing you over :)
@MarcusAbramovitch completely unrelated to the market but I can highly recommend Diplomacy.
@MarcusAbramovitch I suspect a large portion of YES holders would cooperate. I ended up buying more mana towards the end of the market to maximize the chances of cooperating. Alas, I wasn't the one chosen!
Cutting my losses on this market, I don't even really care if it does resolve YES, just don't want to have to deal with this being essentially one person making an arbitrary decision (or the low probability that all of this is a setup to manipulate the market by both participants). Either case it's not worth refreshing this page every 5 minutes to find out how much I lost.
@PedeJo Same. I lost 13 mana but got piece of mind 😭 I thought it obvious whoever had more shares should just bribe the other one to split and you both make huge profits but I guess not
@DylanSlagh I do feel kinda sorry for y'all for being in that position (and that might have changed my mind before I made a commitment about how I would decide).
@Gen This would definitely be a good strategy. I just don't think that's right to do.
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