Split or Steal: Can two randomly-chosen shareholders cooperate?
resolved Mar 29

At market close, I'll randomly pick two people from the list of YES shareholders, weighted by their number of shares. (e.g. if someone has 50 shares they're twice as likely to be chosen as someone with 25 shares.)

I'll then announce who those people are and reopen the market. A day or two later, they will each PM me "split" or "steal". If they both choose "split", I'll send them each M$50. If one chooses "steal" and one chooses "split", I'll send the stealer M$100. If they both choose steal, they both get nothing.

Market resolves to YES if they both choose "split", and to NO if either chooses "steal". (And I'll publically share the results of who chose what.)




And the good one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0qjK3TWZE8

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IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted YES

Alright, let's try this again. This time I won't reopen the market after choosing the participants, so the strategy of "buy a bunch of NO after I'm selected and steal" is not an option.

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitchpredicted NO

I calculate that @wylderai won 218 from this.
I profited 2329 and expect to give out around 500-1000 mana to others. (1300-1800 profit)

I can guarantee that if wylderai chose to negotiate, i would have made sure he was compensated handsomely, far more than 200M

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted YES
wylderai avatar
wylderaipredicted YES

Should anyone care to verify my RNG, my entropy was

This is my entropy mwahahaha bleeeergh

and the output of my script was

SHA of entropy

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitchbought Ṁ1,805 of NO

If you had split shares prior to March 28th at 3AM EST and lost money on this market and would like some back, send me a DM on discord

kian_spire avatar
kian_spirepredicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch What's your discord?

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitchpredicted NO

@kian_spire you can definitely find it in the manifold discord

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted YES

Wylderai has chosen to split. Marcus has chosen to steal. It is done.

wylderai avatar
wylderaipredicted YES

I have resolved my linked market. There is a 68.7% chance that I split. Before I roll the RNG and secretly send my response to Isaac, I'd like to invite someone to provide an unpredictable input to my RNG. I will use the first reply to this comment as input to the script described in this comment

jfjurchen avatar
J. F. Jurchenpredicted YES

beep boop I am an unpredictable random comment

wylderai avatar
wylderaibought Ṁ10 of YES

@jfjurchen ty. (I will no longer trade on this market after I roll.)

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingsold Ṁ661 of NO

Alright, looks like everyone's decided on what they're doing. @MarcusAbramovitch and @wylderai, please send me your final answers on Discord or email.



MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitchbought Ṁ1,570 of NO

I'm going to lose mana on this market but I want to no longer commit to splitting with how @wylderai has decided to act. My intention was to form a scenario where we were both aligned and incentivized to split (both with large profits). This did not occur.

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitchpredicted NO

I'm not going to maximally take advantage of my change in position. I hope @42irrationalist and others can cut some losses. I will also be gifting some mana to those negatively affected (though not going to make you whole, just a little bit to soften the blow). I have learned my lesson for these markets that others won't do the straightforward approach, even when it would make them a lot more mana.

SebastianMarshall avatar
Sebastian Marshallsold Ṁ5 of YES

@MarcusAbramovitch This seems honorable and thoughtful. I just liquidated my Yes position for a small refund. I feel like participating in this market was a useful learning experience and am grateful @IsaacKing created it.

Ace avatar
Acepredicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch like "rejection therapy" cold calling to get used to being turned down, I recommend playing online Diplomacy for getting used to other people playing games irrationally (i.e., not maximizing their winnings) and thereby screwing you over :)

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitchpredicted NO

@JacyAnthis I've never played Diplomacy, maybe I should.

PedeJo avatar
PedeJobought Ṁ200 of NO

@MarcusAbramovitch completely unrelated to the market but I can highly recommend Diplomacy.

42irrationalist avatar
42irrationalistsold Ṁ48 of YES

@MarcusAbramovitch I suspect a large portion of YES holders would cooperate. I ended up buying more mana towards the end of the market to maximize the chances of cooperating. Alas, I wasn't the one chosen!

PedeJo avatar
PedeJosold Ṁ363 of YES

Cutting my losses on this market, I don't even really care if it does resolve YES, just don't want to have to deal with this being essentially one person making an arbitrary decision (or the low probability that all of this is a setup to manipulate the market by both participants). Either case it's not worth refreshing this page every 5 minutes to find out how much I lost.

DylanSlagh avatar
Dylan Slagh

@PedeJo Same. I lost 13 mana but got piece of mind 😭 I thought it obvious whoever had more shares should just bribe the other one to split and you both make huge profits but I guess not

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitchsold Ṁ105 of YES

@DylanSlagh this is what I wanted to happen

DylanSlagh avatar
Dylan Slagh

@MarcusAbramovitch bless your kind soul lmao

wylderai avatar
wylderaipredicted YES

@DylanSlagh I do feel kinda sorry for y'all for being in that position (and that might have changed my mind before I made a commitment about how I would decide).

Gen avatar
Genzypredicted NO

@wylderai What I don’t understand, is why Marcus hasnt sold this market to 0 and decided to steal

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitchpredicted NO

@Gen This would definitely be a good strategy. I just don't think that's right to do.