[Poll] Am I in the right in my disagreement with Yev over what counts as a bot bet?

Basic

Ṁ97

resolved Dec 26

Resolved

N/A

ALL

This is the type of poll described here. This market resolves N/A after a week, it exists only as a method of opinion expression. To vote, bet any amount of mana on YES or NO. Larger amounts of mana indicate a more strongly held opinion. It will all be refunded once this poll ends.

Bet YES if you think I was in the right in resolving those markets to YES, bet NO if you think Yev was acting fairly. And please share your reasoning in the comments.

For context, see this market and this discord conversation.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Manifold

#Trading Bots

#Meta-markets on improper resolution

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'Bet YES if you think I was in the right in resolving those markets to YES'

Didn't you resolve those markets to NO?

@XComhghall Ah yeah, that was a typo.

predicted NO

@IsaacKing He :omegalul:

@Yev I believe I owe you M$105 and I owe Pos M$701. Could you confirm?

Apologies for the delay

This should probably resolve at some point

From what I can tell it seems like technically you’d be in right, but I think specification in the market would help. I also think the style of market is prone to exploitation from bots, but idk

Learning that Yev's bot was trading in the same way that it trades on other markets did update me significantly towards thinking I screwed up. A bot that was programmed to exploit my rules is still a bot.

Borderline but I think the burden is on the market creator to make the text more precise if you want to avoid leaving loopholes.

It's reasonable for the market creator to decide subjectively and account for weird edge cases after the fact - while this makes predicting more difficult in some cases, it can make sense in other cases.

The Discord chat link doesn't work.

@BRTD It does for me. Are you in the Manifold discord server?

If not, here's an invite link: https://discord.gg/ZTRwdJsy

Here is a poll where whales don't get an advantage: https://strawpoll.com/polls/GJn4GlkLbyz

This raises a potential flaw with this market type: I could place a limit order for M$40000 NO if I very feel strongly about it, and I will get all of it back when the market resolves N/A.

@Yev I will of course not do this. I commit to not trading on this market.

@Yev That's exactly how this type of poll is supposed to work. People who feel more strongly about the subject have more of a say.

Of course the probability of the market at close doesn't bind me to anything, it's just a useful indicator.

@IsaacKing The two of us care more than anyone else. And I have much more mana than you.

[Poll] Am I in the right in my disagreement with Yev over what counts as a bot bet?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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