In the Manifold MTG tournament, will anyone bet against themselves and throw a game?
15
310Ṁ2817
resolved Mar 31
Resolved
YES

Context.

In order to count as "throwing a game", it needs to either be a concession or intentional bad play, in a game they had a decent chance of winning. Waiting until you're almost guaranteed to lose then betting against yourself and conceding doesn't count.

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Any threshold on "decent chance of winning"?

predictedYES

@GustavoMafra It's going to be very subjective.

@IsaacKing Why not defining it as something like "having more than 20% chance of winning in the match market, as long as the probability isn't obviously manipulated"?

predictedYES

@GustavoMafra Sure, that seems reasonable. But how do we determine the point at which it occurred?

@IsaacKing I guess spectators (maybe players even) would need to keep track of the time when the intentional bad play happened, worse case estimate it. But here at least we seem to shift the problem to one of accuracy of record, not of definition

No way anyone would do this 😁

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