In the ACX 2023 prediction contest, will Manifold do better than all entrants?

21

390Ṁ4102

resolved Mar 22

Resolved

NO

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest

Participants will be scored on an as-yet-unspecified metric. Manifold is going to have markets on all of those questions. If the market probabilities of the Manifold markets on Feruary 1st are scored as though they were an entrant into the contest, will Manifold get a higher (or tied for highest) score than any real entrant?

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Creator has been pinged multiple times and the market is unambiguous. Resolving to NO.

bought Ṁ100 NO

@IsaacKing This should resolve No

Dan boughtṀ300NO

This can resolve NO: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/who-predicted-2023

@DanMan314 @IsaacKing bump

@simoj @IsaacKing @DanMan314 double bump - this has been resolvable for 17 days

I calculated my own logloss and r^2 scores and mine are better than Manifold's, so... pretty confident this will resolve NO haha

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