In the ACX 2023 prediction contest, will Manifold do better than all entrants?
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resolved Mar 22
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https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest
Participants will be scored on an as-yet-unspecified metric. Manifold is going to have markets on all of those questions. If the market probabilities of the Manifold markets on Feruary 1st are scored as though they were an entrant into the contest, will Manifold get a higher (or tied for highest) score than any real entrant?
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