In the ACX 2023 prediction contest, will Manifold do better than all entrants?
21
390Ṁ4102resolved Mar 22
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest
Participants will be scored on an as-yet-unspecified metric. Manifold is going to have markets on all of those questions. If the market probabilities of the Manifold markets on Feruary 1st are scored as though they were an entrant into the contest, will Manifold get a higher (or tied for highest) score than any real entrant?
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