Spindle has long been the most recognizable of Manifolders, having built a considerable cult of personality around themselves.
Recently a new challenger has appeared. Investing tens of thousands of mana into an obviously losing position, Mira has taken the hearts and minds of the Manifold community by storm. Will their flame peter out like a dying candle? Or will it shine brightly through eons to come?
At the end of June, who will be more known, loved, or feared?
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@IsaacKing I think Mira was by far the most famous. Most people who joined Manifold post-"The Market" probably don't even know who Spindle is, since that's the last time he was active.
@IsaacKing sounds good. If you were to resolve it subjectively today, (implicit "if it is information you are willing to divulge") how would you resolve?
@RobertCousineau Hmm. I think Spindle is more infamous. They recently inspired a large push on Conflux's "The Market", and people write bots designed specifically to bet against Spindle.
Mira on the other hand has transitioned to trying to actually turn a profit. Boooooooring.
@RobertCousineau If that GPT market was for real money, you would definitely feel fear.
@IsaacKing that's fair and explains my false prediction - I try to avoid betting on/paying attention to self resolving markets (I lost 400 on April fools day betting on one as I thought it was truly "play" play money </3, #neveragain).
@IsaacKing oh i didn't know that you could do that with manifold markets account! (Assuming that the question is about the Mira account, and not the same person under a different account)
@firstuserhere I don't know exactly how deleted accounts work, but even if it's not possible at the moment, Manifold features are changing all the time, so it could easily become possible in the future. I expect if Mira wanted to get their old username back, they could just ask the Manifold devs and they'd probably accomodate that request.
As for whether I'd count Mira coming back under a different username, hmm. As long as they express the a similar personality on the site I think I should count that.
@IsaacKing Maybe Mira will become a ghost and start haunting people when they least expect it.
Admittedly I’m only like a week and a half old around here, so I’m ignorant of (and thus unbiased? heh) about past versus present fame.
That said, all the fun and excitement seems to be going down in the 69% market the past few days. On top of that, @Mira has been a lot more frequent, and funny, in comments all over the site. So, speaking as a newb, @Spindle hasn’t shown up in nearly the same way. If we were calling it today, imo it’s no contest.
@MattCWilson Yeah, but that's not a fair comparison, anyone new making a splash will tend to take attention away from others. This market is about whether that popularity will be maintained.