This market resolves once AI seems about as intelligent as it's ever plausibly going to get.
If that level is human-level or below, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise, it resolves to the percentage that I think MIRI's work contributed to the final solution.
This includes foundational work. If a different organization is the one to mostly solve alignment, but they cite some of MIRI's prior work, this will resolve to >0%, depending on how important the cited work seems.
This excludes general popularization. If it's solved by someone who got into AI alignment due to reading Eliezer's explanations of why AI is dangerous, but then goes down a compeltely different research path that doesn't rely on any of MIRI's technical work, this resolves to 0%.
Given the subjectivity inherrant in picking a percentage, I won't bet in this market.
1,000@LinchuanZhang Yes, it will resolve to that percentage. For example if I think Miri contributed 40% of the work, it will resolve to 40%. Each YES share will pay out $M0.4 and each NO share will pay out M$0.6.