Did Israel execute unarmed Gazans on December 19th for no good reason?
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53%
chance

https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/un-human-rights-office-opt-unlawful-killings-gaza-city

Resolves based on whether this turns out to be generally true. A minor detail wrong like it being 10 men instead of 11 won't prevent this from resolving YES. The goal is to determine whether this is more like a war crime or more like a normal combat operation. (Or didn't happen at all.)

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If “Israel execute[d] unarmed Gazans on December 19th for no good reason” in a different incident, would this resolve YES?

If Israel reports that this was a combat operation, would this resolve NO?

If someone reports that these people were not armed at the time but did pose a threat to Israel (e.g., were hiding weapons/fighters in their home), would this resolve NO?

@oh What source(s) will be used to verify the reality of the situation? What source(s)/qualities will be used to determine the interpretation of the situation, i.e., a combat operation vs. a war crime?

@oh Refers to this specific incident; whatever is being reported on.

Whatever sources seem most credible.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Things like this do happen. The question is whether this specific case is misreported.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

"A minor detail wrong like it being 10 men instead of 11 won't prevent this from resolving YES."

Would you consider them not being civilians a "minor detail"?

@CertaintyOfVictory Hmm. I think so? Executing unarmed soldiers in a non-combat context is still a war crime, right?

sold Ṁ77 of NO

@IsaacKing My business is not deciding whether something is a war crime, my business is calculating the probability if something happens and for this it actually is a huge difference in my opinion and with the change the whole premise of this market changed.

Thanks for clarification. I will end my interaction with this market.

@CertaintyOfVictory I mean I already said below that if they were members of Hamas it would count.

@IsaacKing Yes, you did. You have no fault in me not seeing a comment you made in this market.

@CertaintyOfVictory Well I shouldn't have put "civilians" in the title, that was my bad.

Clarification. Your question says "for no particular reason" - something not found in the article. Having intel that they were Hamas would be a particular reason, yes? (I'm not in any way convinced that this is true, or that this story is true, or that these are untrue, or anything. Nothing about this case would surprise me. Just looking for clarification here.)

@Najawin I've changed it to "for no good reason". If they were an imminent threat, such that killing them was a legitimate combat action, then this resolves NO. Them being defenseless Hamas members I think would resolve to YES, since traditional ethics would dictate that they're captured as prisoners instead.

bought Ṁ15 of YES

@IsaacKing
>Them being defenseless Hamas members I think would resolve to YES
In that case please remove "civilians" from the title

@IsaacKing I'd also suggest that whether or not the IDF would consider them defenseless in this situation would greatly depend on whether or not they were stripped like we've seen in the pictures. The second intifada imbued a certain level of cynicism in them.

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