By the end of 2023, will users have purchased at least M$20,000,000 mana?
Mini
39
แน€4.7k
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO

As of market creation, it looks like people have bought somewhere around M$2,500,000 mana. (That's an extremely rough estimate, likely only accurate to within ~half an order of magnitude.)

This market resolves to whether the total at the end of 2023 (going all the way back to Manifold's creation in 2020) is at least 20 million mana. This does not include employees who receive a portion of their salary in mana, nor free mana given out to famous users for promotional reasons, nor any other non-standard ways of exhanging USD for mana. It counts only people who went to one of the normal mana-puchasing pages on the Manifold website and completed a transaction there.

If I'm unable to determine the answer at market close because that information has been taken private, this will resolve N/A. (But I'd hope that a Manifold employee would be willing to take a look at their books and at least give me a yes/no answer.)

Get แน€600 play money

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I can't easily tell from the stats page. @chrisjbillington Is there a way for the public to see this data?

@IsaacKing Yes, total mana sales (in mana) to date are แน€14,928,500:

$ curl "https://pxidrgkatumlvfqaxcll.supabase.co/rest/v1/txns?apikey=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpc3MiOiJzdXBhYmFzZSIsInJlZiI6InB4aWRyZ2thdHVtbHZmcWF4Y2xsIiwicm9sZSI6ImFub24iLCJpYXQiOjE2Njg5OTUzOTgsImV4cCI6MTk4NDU3MTM5OH0.d_yYtASLzAoIIGdXUBIgRAGLBnNow7JG2SoaNMQ8ySg&data->>category=eq.MANA_PURCHASE" | jq '[.[] | .data.amount] | add'
14928500

@chrisjbillington You're the best :)

predicted NO

If this happens, my mana will be worth less anyway, so I'm inclined to bet NO.

Doesn't seem like we're on track for this to happen.