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MANIFOLD
Will a quantum/classical algorithm breaking ML-KEM-768 be found before 2050?
2
Ṁ1kṀ18
2049
21%
chance

(non-hash-based-) post-quantum encryption is just encryption that we don't yet have a quantum algorithm to break. This market sees if the most popular post-quantum encryption algorithm is in fact breakable.

Resolves YES if an algorithm proven (by field consensus) to break ML-KEM-768 is discovered, even if it can only be run on quantum hardware which hasn't yet been created. The algorithm needs to be around as theoretically practical to use as Shor's algorithm (so if it requires a zillion qubits to use then it doesn't count). If ML-KEM-768 is broken by any other means, this still resolves YES. Resolves NO if ML-KEM-768 is still unbroken and practical for post-quantum use by 2050.

Market context
Technology
Quantum Computing
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