How many Hard Geometry Questions will appear in the 2025-2026 USA IMO Cycle?
6
125Ṁ392
2026
2.5 questions
expected
70%
0-2
48%
3-5
6%
6-7
4%
8-10
2%
11+

The IMO cycle here consists of any olympiad test used in the selection of the 2026 IMO (Notably the TSTST, IMO, and AMC / AIME are excluded).

For the purposes of this market, any sufficiently combinatorial geometry problem will not be counted. In general, a geo problem here should

  • Be theoretically bashable

  • Have at least one solution involving angle chasing or power of a point

Here, a hard geometry problem, barring extenuating circumstances, will by default coincide with a placement in a non p1/p4 slot on non-APMO tests, and a p3-p5 slot on APMO.

For reference, last year's TST cycle had exactly one hard geometry problem. Namely,

  • TST 3 is a hard geo problem

  • TST 4, USAMO 4, APMO 1 are considered too easy.

  • RMM 1, and USAMO 3 are considered too combinatorial.

  • TST 5, APMO 2, APMO 4, USAMO 6 are not geometry problems, despite having circles and a grid respectively, as they act in a discrete context.

  • RMM 3, despite having a geometric visualization, does not qualify as geometry.

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You may want to clarify that this is the USA IMO team selection cycle.

APMO 1 is considered too easy

.

guys guys guys why are we betting the sum to >200%

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