Criteria for Resolution: Manned Interstellar Mission: The mission must be a spaceflight with human crew members on board (hibernated or mind uploaded humans qualify). Interstellar Destination: The mission's destination must be beyond the dominating influence of the Sun's gravity, typically considered to be beyond the heliosphere. Launch: The mission must be officially launched, meaning the spacecraft has left Earth's atmosphere and is on a trajectory intended to take it to interstellar space.

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 20% chance (25 traders, as of Jan 21, 2026).

Will a manned interstellar mission be launched before January 1, 2060?

Criteria for Resolution:

Manned Interstellar Mission: The mission must be a spaceflight with human crew members on board (hibernated or mind uploaded humans qualify).
Interstellar Destination: The mission's destination must be beyond the dominating influence of the Sun's gravity, typically considered to be beyond the heliosphere.
Launch: The mission must be officially launched, meaning the spacecraft has left Earth's atmosphere and is on a trajectory intended to take it to interstellar space.