Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if NJ Transit workers initiate a strike at any point between May 1, 2025, and May 31, 2025. A strike is defined as a work stoppage by NJ Transit employees that disrupts regular transit services. The primary source for resolution will be official announcements from NJ Transit or credible news outlets reporting on the strike.

Background

As of March 10, 2025, NJ Transit and the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen reached a tentative agreement on a new labor contract, which included a "reasonable wage increase" and the resolution of a longstanding grievance. The union's members were expected to vote on ratifying the agreement in April 2025. (apnews.com) However, on April 16, 2025, the union overwhelmingly rejected the proposed labor agreement, raising the potential for a strike or lockout as early as May 15, 2025. (apnews.com) Subsequent negotiations have been ongoing, with both parties meeting with a federal mediation board in early May to attempt to resolve the dispute. (apnews.com)

Considerations

If a strike occurs, it would be the first transit strike in New Jersey in over 40 years, potentially affecting approximately 350,000 daily commuters. NJ Transit has announced contingency plans, including limited additional bus services and partnerships with private carriers, though these measures would only accommodate about 20% of normal rail commuters. (apnews.com) Commuters are advised to stay informed through official NJ Transit communications and plan alternative transportation methods if necessary.