Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the total duration, in days, of any NJ Transit strike initiated by the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen (BLET) in May 2025. The strike's start and end dates will be determined using official announcements from NJ Transit and the BLET. The total duration will be calculated as the number of calendar days from the start date to the end date, inclusive. For example, if the strike begins on May 16 and ends on May 20, the duration would be 5 days. Official sources for verification include:

• NJ Transit's official website: https://www.njtransit.com/

• BLET's official website: https://ble-t.org/

If no strike is called, according the following market, then this market will resolve NA.

https://manifold.markets/IanTurner2541/nj-transit-workers-strike-in-may-20?play=true

Background

As of May 16, 2025, NJ Transit engineers, represented by the BLET, have proposed a strike due to unresolved labor disputes primarily concerning wage increases. The union seeks to raise engineers' average salaries to $170,000 annually, while NJ Transit reports the current average is $135,000. This strike marks the first transit walkout in New Jersey in over four decades and is expected to disrupt the daily commute for approximately 350,000 people in New Jersey and New York City. (apnews.com)

Considerations

• Contingency Plans: NJ Transit has announced limited additional bus services and partnerships with private carriers to mitigate the impact of the strike. However, these measures are expected to accommodate only about 20% of normal rail commuters. (apnews.com)

• Negotiation Status: Negotiations between NJ Transit and the BLET are ongoing, with involvement from a federal mediation board. No significant progress has been reported as of the strike's commencement. (apnews.com)

• Historical Context: The last major NJ Transit strike occurred over 40 years ago, indicating the rarity and potential severity of such labor actions within the state's transit system. (apnews.com)