I will not be betting in this market
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to the date when the NJ Transit rail strike concludes, as confirmed by official announcements from NJ Transit or the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen (BLET). The strike is considered ended when NJ Transit resumes normal rail operations. Reliable sources for verification include:
NJ Transit's official website: https://www.njtransit.com/
BLET's official website: https://ble-t.org/
Reputable news outlets reporting on the strike's resolution.
Background
On May 16, 2025, NJ Transit train engineers initiated a strike, disrupting the daily commute of approximately 350,000 passengers between New Jersey and New York City. This action followed failed negotiations and the union's rejection of a previous labor agreement. Engineers are demanding wage increases to align with pay at other regional passenger railroads, proposing an average salary of $170,000, compared to their current $113,000. NJ Transit contends that some engineers already earn more than $200,000 and that substantial raises could lead to similar demands from other unions, causing financial strain. (apnews.com)
The strike has left train terminals deserted and caused passengers to seek alternate transportation, including ferries and buses. However, NJ Transit's contingency plans can only accommodate about 20% of usual train commuters, prompting many to work from home. Governor Phil Murphy emphasized the need for a fair and financially viable resolution. Talks with federal mediators are scheduled to resume Sunday. The strike has also led to the cancellation of transit services for consecutive Shakira concerts. With engineer staffing down from 500 to 450, the situation underscores ongoing workforce challenges and labor unrest within NJ Transit operations. (apnews.com)
Considerations
Impact on Commuters: The strike significantly affects daily commuters, especially those traveling between New Jersey and New York City. Alternative transportation options are limited, and NJ Transit's contingency plans can only accommodate a fraction of the usual passenger load.
Negotiation Dynamics: The primary contention revolves around wage disparities. Engineers seek parity with counterparts in other regional railroads, while NJ Transit is concerned about the financial implications of meeting these demands.
Potential Duration: The duration of the strike is uncertain and depends on the progress of negotiations. Previous labor disputes in the transit sector have varied in length, making it challenging to predict when normal service will resume.
Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution will be based on the date NJ Transit resumes normal rail operations.
An announcement of a tentative agreement is not sufficient for resolution; the agreement must be fully approved and operations must actually resume for the market to resolve.
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https://www.njtransit.com/restart
By resolution criteria (trains restarting) ends Tuesday very likely
@JoshCohen That's interesting. I just blindly hit send on the AI generated text, and I think your reading of it is correct for Tuesday as the resolution criteria, but I think technically the strike "ended" Sunday based on the first sentence of the BLET's post about it: https://ble-t.org/news/strike-ends-as-blet-nj-transit-reach-tentative-agreement/
I'm not resolving it until it actually happens and the BLET's post indicates that members need to vote to approve it, and then NJ transit needs to vote to approve it on June 11, so I wonder if its possible that there's a re-strike at some point.
@JeffreyDeLucca I could be wrong, but as far as I understand, this strike was preceded by an agreement reached between NJ Transit and the union leadership and voted down by the employees, so if the same thing happens again, that would be a new strike, not a continuation of this one, which has ended.
In any case, all of this should have been explained more clearly in the resolution criteria IMO. I was betting based on the resolution "The strike is considered ended when NJ Transit resumes normal rail operations."