On LMSys, what will be the difference between the top model and GPT-4-1106 on Jan 1 2026?
3
44
แน115แน160
2025
207
expected
1D
1W
1M
ALL
On the LMSys leaderboard, GPT-4-1106-preview is currently ranked the highest. The question asks about the difference between the ELO of the highest-performing model, and GPT-4-1106, at midnight, January 1, 2026 PST. For example, if the top model has 1400 ELO, and GPT-4-1106 has 1200 ELO, then this question resolves to 200.
Edge cases:
If the difference is more than 300, then resolves to 300
If GPT-4-1106 is removed from the leaderboard, then use GPT-4-0125 instead
If both 1106 and 0125 are removed from the leaderboard:
If there exists a version of GPT-4 that was within 30 ELO of 1106 or 0125, then use that version of GPT-4
Otherwise, resolves N/A
If the LMSys leaderboard no longer exists or is somehow compromised, then resolves N/A
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