Will the first confirmed capture of a North Korean soldier by Ukrainian forces occur before the end of 2024?
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134
Ṁ20k
Dec 31
32%
chance

Resolution Criteria

A capture will be considered confirmed if at least two of the following criteria are met:

  1. Verified OSINT evidence (e.g., geolocated photos or videos, intercepted communications)

  2. Official statement from Ukrainian military authorities

  3. Reports from at least two major international news agencies

  4. Confirmation from reputable OSINT organizations or analysts

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Department of Defense: North Korean Troops Enter Kursk Where Ukrainians Are Fighting

https://x.com/DeptofDefense/status/1858629716506198245

North Korean troops have entered the fight in Russia’s war against Ukraine, clashing for the first time with Ukrainian forces who are occupying a large chunk of Russia’s Kursk region, according to a senior Ukrainian official and a senior U.S. official.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/05/world/europe/north-korea-russia-ukraine-kursk.html

bought Ṁ270 YES

@RoeyKelner looks like it was a fake

@RoeyKelner It was fake. AI generated image.

Still, I'm divesting... quit while I'm ahead... seems that the NK are getting close to the front and now that I think about it I can see defectors

Yoon sends government delegation to Ukraine to consult on North Korean troops. The South Korean president also shared intelligence with the head of the European Commission suggesting that North Korean troops may join fighting sooner than anticipated

https://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/1164881.html

"First military units from DPRK left training grounds in eastern Russia and were spotted in Kursk region on Wednesday, Ukraine’s military intelligence said. "

https://www.politico.eu/article/north-korea-troops-russia-training-grounds-military-defense-kremlin-ukraine/

bought Ṁ250 NO

Seems unreasonably high. Ukraine isn’t doing much in the way of advances nowadays. We don’t know what role the DPRK soldiers will be placed in, but it’s possible that they’re not going to be front line troops.

I guess if defections count as captures, it becomes more likely?

@creator "before 2024" in the title would have to mean it would already have had to happen, in 2023 or earlier. Did you mean "before 2025"?

@DanielTilkin yes. I updated the title.

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